Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for July 21: ‘Cluster Bombing Commences’

Snapshot

Ukraine uses cluster bombs against Russian positions. Moscow continues port bombing for the fourth day. “Push me, pull me” gains: for Ukraine in Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia, and for Russia in Kharkiv.

Analysis

General Developments

As confirmed by senior American and Ukrainian spokesmen, Ukraine has begun to use US-supplied cluster bomb ammunition on Russian positions and troop concentrations. US National Security Advisor John Kirby called them “effective.”

Russian forces launched a fourth night of missile and drone strikes against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Russia conducted 49 airstrikes and 72 MLRS rocket attacks against Ukrainian settlements and positions; Ukraine conducted eight airstrikes. Since the beginning of Ukraine’s offensive, the consistent ratio of Russian versus Ukrainian airstrike operations is more than 5:1. Data is drawn from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) daily update.

Russia shelled some 90 Ukrainian communities across the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions and a span of more than 1,000 kilometers, according to the General Staff report.

The focus of Western partners has significantly shifted to repairing and maintaining weapons handed over to Ukraine, Pentagon spokesperson William LaPlante said to Politico.

Other Topics of Interest

Shift in Ukrainian Attitudes Toward War Endurance as Belief in Russia’s Resources Grows

Between February and October 2023, the proportion of Ukrainians who believe Russia retains substantial resources for a prolonged war against Ukraine nearly doubled, rising from 22% to 49%.

A Russian company that is under investigation by authorities presented financial rewards to Russian forces for the capture of Western military technology.

Operational Aspects in Bakhmut

Pro-Russian milbloggers said Ukrainian forces continued to “take up positions” near Yahidne which is on Bakhmut’s northern flank. Previously, most Ukrainian progress has been reported on Bakhmut’s southern flank.

Pro-Russian milbloggers also said that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to gain a foothold on the heights near Klischiivka” [Bakhmut’s southern flank] and that “occupied several new positions near the M-03 highway in the Orikhovo-Vasylivka area” [northern flank].

Ukrainian military spokespersons confirmed progress on both flanks.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky stated that Ukrainian forces cannot rapidly advance near Bakhmut due to heavy Russian force concentrations in the area, ISW reported.

Operational Aspects in Kupyansk, Kherson, Crimea, Russia and other areas

Satellite imagery from Planet Lab showed destruction at the Russian base near Stary Krym in Crimea.

Pro-Russian milbloggers claimed without verification that “in the Kupyansk direction in the Kharkiv region, units of the Zapad group continue successful offensive operations. In a few days, the advance of our forces amounted to more than 3 kilometers.” They also claimed that more Ukrainian forces were being transferred to the zone.

Pro-Russian milbloggers said Ukrainian forces attempted to “land troops on the islands of Hola Prystan” on the Dnipro River 10 kilometers south of Kherson.

Atesh, an apparent pro-Ukraine partisan movement based in occupied Crimea, said on its Telegram feed that Russian authorities are preparing a “massive search against Ukrainian patriots and activists of the resistance movement.” It said the Russian focus is especially on resistance in the Kerch and Kirov districts (where the Russian military base was recently hit).

Russian media outlets reported that an airfield in Ryazan region of Russia was attacked by an unmanned aerial vehicle. “According to preliminary data, the explosion could have been carried out using a handmade quadcopter,” Baza stated.

Pro-Russian milbloggers reported on-going shelling in the Belgorod region of Russia.

Operational Aspects on Boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in Western Zaporizhzhia

In western Zaporizhzhia region, pro-Russian milbloggers said the Ukrainian forces continued to attack south of Orikhiv and “managed to take up new positions northeast of Robotyne and west of Novopokrivka.”

In the boundary region, pro-Russian milbloggers said Ukrainian forces attacked near Staromaiorske, Urozhayne and Novodonetske, and “managed to advance” in the latter.