British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 9 July 2023

·      Russian state-approved media has responded to the 24 June 2023 Wagner Group mutiny in three phases. Outlets were almost certainly initially surprised by the mutiny and were not prepared; Russian TV maintained its usual schedule.

·      After the insurrection was defused, Russian state outlets sought to ‘correct’ claims that security forces had been passive. Narratives promoted the idea that President Vladimir Putin had triumphed by thwarting the insurrection, while avoiding bloodshed, and sought to unite the country behind the president.

·      Nearly a week later, the state started to play down the significance of Wagner owner Yevgeny Prigozhin and the mutiny, while tarnishing his character. Wagner Telegram channels have largely gone silent, almost certainly due to state intervention. By contrast, Putin has undertaken unusually prominent public engagements, almost certainly aiming to project strength.