Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for July 7: ‘We’re Advancing, Not Retreating, Like Russians.’

Analysis

Mick Ryan, retired Australian general and internationally recognized military strategist: 

·      There is no modern comparator for what Ukraine is trying to do. It lacks control of the air, and Western nations have failed to provide the kinds of modern fighters, or the quantity of long-range attack systems (e.g., ATACMS), needed.

·      Ukraine will first do everything it can to make ground combat operations as uneven as possible in its favor. That means steadily, methodically taking down the Russian operational system over the coming weeks.

·      Objectives of this current phase of degrading the Russian system including finding and destroying logistics locations, engineers (who lay minefields), as well as fire support units. Given the size of the Russian force in Ukraine, this is a considerable undertaking and takes time.

Snapshot

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on three sectors of the front and are continuing to degrade Russian manpower and logistics assets. Ukrainian military officials reported Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive activities in Bakhmut, the western Donetsk, and western Zaporizhzhia directions, while targeting the Russian rear-guard in Zaporizhzhia in particular.

General Developments

   ·      “The offensive is not fast. That's a fact. But nevertheless, we are advancing, not retreating, like Russians,” President Zelensky told reporters alongside Czech President Czech leader Petr Pavel. “We now have the initiative,” he said.

Other Topics of Interest

Shift in Ukrainian Attitudes Toward War Endurance as Belief in Russia’s Resources Grows

Between February and October 2023, the proportion of Ukrainians who believe Russia retains substantial resources for a prolonged war against Ukraine nearly doubled, rising from 22% to 49%.

·      ISW reported that Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar emphasized that the Ukrainian efforts to strike Russian concentration areas are imperative for the wider counteroffensive and contribute to the slower rate of ground attacks across the theater.

·      Malyar noted that Ukrainian forces destroyed six Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia alone in the past day and confirmed that the July 4 strike on Makiivka in the occupied Donetsk region were effective examples of the destruction of Russian artillery and equipment assets.

·      Russia undertook 57 air raids against Ukrainian positions; Ukraine undertook eight air raids.

·      Romania said it would launch a regional hub to train pilots including Ukrainians to fly American-made F-16 fighter aircraft.

·      Finland announced a further military aid package for Ukraine of $114 million including air defense capacity.

Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Maryinka, Kherson, Russia and other areas

·      Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line, according to ISW.

·      Russian forces conducted assaults in the Serebryanka forest, according to pro-Russian sources.

·      Russian forces continued assaults near Maryinka and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, according to ISW and pro-Russian sources.

·      Air defense systems were active over Belgorod, Russia.

Operational Aspects in Zone A. TO518 / Mokri Yaly River Axis - boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, and Zone B. Western Zaporizhzhia

·      Russian and Ukrainian sources continued to discuss Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Donetsk region south of Velyka Novosilka and in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhzhia region, ISW reported.

·      Pro-Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces attacked at Zherebyanok and Robotyne in western Zaporizhzhia.

·      Pro-Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces attacked at Pryyutne, Staromayorske and Levadne along the Mokri Yaly River line.

·      Pro-Russian sources claimed that aspects of Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine have severe limitations, including a lack of troop rotations.

Operational Aspects in Zone C. Bakhmut

·      Geolocated footage posted on July 6 shows that Ukrainian troops have advanced towards the western outskirts of Klishchiivka, about 5 km southwest of Bakhmut, ISW reported.

·      Russian forces continued ground attacks in Bakhmut around Berkhivka, according to Ukraine’s General Staff and ISW.