Daily Briefing from Ukraine

·      Top 5 Headlines

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

·      Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Top Headlines

1.     Prior to the NATO Summit, President Zelensky visited the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. While Bulgaria became the 22nd signatory of a declaration in support of Ukraine’s membership of NATO, Zelensky publicly criticized it for advocating a negotiated solution with Russia involving the ceding of Ukrainian territory. Zelensky will travel on to Turkey today. The visit takes place soon before the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 17 July.

2.     Preparations for the NATO Summit on July 11 in Lithuania continued. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday said that Kyiv wanted “honesty” in ties with NATO as he spoke ahead of a key summit of the Western military bloc. “We need honesty in our ties,” Zelensky told reporters alongside Czech President Czech leader Petr Pavel, speaking ahead of a key summit in Vilnius. He said it was time to demonstrate “the courage and strength of this alliance… It is necessary to give a signal to motivate Ukraine to defend Europe. This is not such a high price for such a war and such suffering.”

Other Topics of Interest

Shift in Ukrainian Attitudes Toward War Endurance as Belief in Russia’s Resources Grows

Between February and October 2023, the proportion of Ukrainians who believe Russia retains substantial resources for a prolonged war against Ukraine nearly doubled, rising from 22% to 49%.

3.     Prior to the NATO Summit, the US is likely to commit to a further military aid package for Ukraine. The package could include forms of cluster bomb technology, according to NPR.

4.     The death toll at two Lviv apartment buildings destroyed by a Russian missile rose to 10 people. Another 14 people remain hospitalized. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “Russia’s attack on the western Ukrainian city of Lviv is another example of the Kremlin’s brutality… and this is why supporting Ukraine's defense against Kremlin aggression is vital.”

5.     The leaders of Latin America oppose meeting with President Zelensky at an upcoming summit with the European Union – and deleted Ukraine from a draft Summit declaration. The heads of state and government of the 33 countries of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) will be in Brussels on July 17 for a summit with their EU counterparts. Latin American countries have repeatedly said they do not wish to be dragged into a war they see as a primarily “European problem.”

President Zelensky’s Message

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Snapshot

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on three sectors of the front and are continuing efforts to gradually degrade Russian manpower and logistics assets, according to ISW. Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive activities in the Bakhmut, western Donetsk, and western Zaporizhzhia directions, while targeting the Russian rearguard in Zaporizhzhia in particular.

General Developments

    ·      “The offensive is not fast. That's a fact. But nevertheless, we are advancing, not retreating, like Russians,” President Zelensky told reporters alongside Czech President Czech leader Petr Pavel. “We now have the initiative,” he said.

·      ISW reported that Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar emphasized that the Ukrainian efforts to strike Russian concentration areas are imperative for the wider counteroffensive and contribute to the slower rate of ground attacks across the theater. Malyar noted that Ukrainian forces destroyed six Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia alone in the past day and confirmed that the July 4 strike on Makiivka in the occupied Donetsk region were effective examples of the destruction of Russian artillery and equipment assets.

·      Russia undertook 57 air raids against Ukrainian positions; Ukraine undertook eight air raids.

·      Romania on Thursday said it would launch a regional hub to train pilots including Ukrainians to fly American-made F-16 fighter aircraft.

·      Finland announced a further military aid package for Ukraine of $114 million including air defense capacity.

Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Maryinka, Kherson, Russia and other areas

·      Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line, according to ISW.

·      Russian forces conducted assaults in the Serebryanka forest, according to pro-Russian sources.

·      Russian forces continued assaults near Maryinka and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, according to ISW and pro-Russian sources.

·      Air defense systems were active over Belgorod, Russia.

Operational Aspects in Zone A. TO518 / Mokri Yaly River Axis – boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, and Zone B. Western Zaporizhzhia

·      Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations along the administrative border between the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions and in the western Zaporizhzhia region, according to ISW.

·      Russian and Ukrainian sources continued to discuss Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Donetsk region south of Velyka Novosilka and in the Orikhiv area in western Zaporizhzhia region, ISW reported.

·      Pro-Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces attacked at Zherebyanok and Robotne in western Zaporizhzhia.

·      Pro-Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces attacked at Pryyutne, Staromayorske and Levadne along the Mokri Yaly River line.

·      Pro-Russian sources claimed that aspects of Russian defensive operations in southern Ukraine have severe limitations, including a lack of troop rotations.

Operational Aspects in Zone C. Bakhmut

·      Geolocated footage posted on July 6 shows that Ukrainian troops have advanced towards the western outskirts of Klishchiivka, about 5 km southwest of Bakhmut, ISW reported.

·      Russian forces continued ground attacks in Bakhmut around Berkhivka, according to Ukraine’s General Staff and ISW.