Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for July 4: ‘Forward Defense is Russian Vulnerability’

Snapshot

Ukraine threw jabs in six operational theaters stretching from Kherson to Luhansk. Russia counterpunched. Ukraine says 180,000 Russian troops are now deployed in eastern Ukraine. A new battleground near Luhivske  in western Zaporizhzhia was reported.

Analysis

Renowned military strategist and retired Australian General, Mick Ryan wrote as follows for ABC:

·      Vulnerability one is numbers: The Russians planned to defend the line with massive reinforcements delivered by last year’s partial mobilization. But in the intervening period, the Russians have sustained massive casualties.

·      Vulnerability two is logistics: At the end of last year, reports began to emerge about shortfalls in ammunition in Russian forces. This led to them seeking supplies from places like North Korea and Iran. Consequently, the Ukrainians made Russian ammunition storage depots a high priority in the lead-up to their offensive.

·      Vulnerability three is tactics: The Russians appear to be “defending forward.” This means they are deploying large numbers of their combat forces in the forward security zones of their defensive layouts. This is a high-risk strategy because if they have over-committed their forces forward, any Ukrainian penetration will expose the relatively less-well-defended main defensive positions.

Other Topics of Interest

Shift in Ukrainian Attitudes Toward War Endurance as Belief in Russia’s Resources Grows

Between February and October 2023, the proportion of Ukrainians who believe Russia retains substantial resources for a prolonged war against Ukraine nearly doubled, rising from 22% to 49%.

·      Vulnerability four is loss of cohesion: While it was already an institution where soldiers were treated badly and bad news was never reported upwards, the events of last weekend would have been a jolt to the cohesion of Russian military leadership.

General Developments

·      Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed concern that the F-16 training schedule for Ukrainian pilots has slipped. “There was a promise to start the training in June from one of the countries,” he said. “Now, they say that they are continuing preparations for the start of the training, they made a mistake in the calculations, they need more time. But we do not have time, so we are speeding everything up as much as possible.”

·      Russia has deployed over 180,000 troops to the Lyman-Kupiansk and Bakhmut fronts, according to Serhii Cherevaty, spokesman for the eastern group of the Ukrainian military. “A rather powerful group of forces has been deployed [on the Lyman-Kupiansk front]: over 120 enemy units.”

·      German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said “dozens of Leopard 1A5 tanks” that were allocated to Ukraine by Germany and Denmark will be delivered “in the coming weeks.” Rheinmetall is currently upgrading 24 Leopard 2A4 tanks financed by the Netherlands and Denmark for January 2024 delivery.

Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Marinka, Kherson and other areas

·      Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions in east (left) bank Kherson region near the Antonivsky Bridge as of July 2, according to ISW. A full description of the situation there is available here from Kyiv Post’s military analyst, Stefan Korshak.

·      Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline in Luhansk, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, according to ISW.

·      In Luhansk, pro-Russian sources said Russian forces attacked at the Serebryanka forest near Dribova, but Ukrainian troops held their positions. 

·      Geolocated footage published on July 1 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Volodymyrivka (12 kilometers southeast of Vuhledar) in the western Donetsk region, ISW said.

·      A furniture factory in the Moscow region caught fire.

Operational Aspects in Zone A. TO518 / Mokri Yaly River Axis - boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

·      Russian sources claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia regional border area, according to ISW.

·      Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces attacked at Pryutne.

·      Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down a Russian Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” helicopter in southern Ukraine.

Operational Aspects in Zone B. Western Zaporizhzhia

·      Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted limited offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia region and have advanced as of July 2, according to ISW.

·      Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces had successfully attacked near Luhivske, 10 kilometers west of the Dnipro River and taken “a series of positions.”

·      Russian sources said Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations south and southwest of Orikhiv in the western Zaporizhzhia region, according to ISW. Zaporizhzhia regional occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced towards Russian trench positions near Robotyne (12km south of Orikhiv) and that there is ongoing close combat in these trenches.

·      A Ukrainian milblogger stated that “after Ukrainians pushed Russians from the last line of fortification in front of Robotyne, the Ukrainians shifted their focus to the flanks. The main goal of the Ukrainians right now is to improve their tactical position around Robotyne before attempting to take it… The Ukrainians have already managed to advance by almost 5 kilometers on a 16-kilometer-wide front. Advancing by 5 km does not give the Ukrainians a strategic advantage: the Ukrainians are still 20 kilometers away from Tokmak and 70 kilometers away from Melitopol.”

Operational Aspects in Zone C. Bakhmut

·      Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks around Bakhmut, according to ISW.

·      “Our troops are advancing with battles on the southern flank in the area of Klishchiyivka. At the same time, fighting continues on the northern flank,” Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar posted on Telegram.

·      “However, the situation is changing very rapidly. Control over the same positions can be lost and regained twice a day. The enemy actively reacts to all our actions and creates three lines of defense in threatening directions,” Malyar explained.

Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces attacked at Ozeryanivka, Kurdyumivka, and Klishchivka, and Russian forces counterattacked at Berkhivka.