Daily Briefing from Ukraine

·      Top 6 Headlines

·      Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

·      President Zelensky’s Message of the Day

·      FYI Kyiv Locals

Top Headlines

1.    Vladimir Putin’s response to the Wagner rebellion was “weak” and the Russian President is losing control of his own people, President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN. “We see he doesn’t control everything,” Zelensky said. “Wagner’s moving deep into Russia and taking certain regions shows how easy it is to do. Putin doesn’t control the situation in the regions. All that vertical of power he used to have is just crumbling down.”

2.     President Zelensky said that “right now, Russia is killing Ukrainian citizen Mikheil Saakashvili at the hands of the Georgian authorities.” Ukraine will summon the Georgian ambassador following the appearance of a sickly and emaciated Saakashvili on Georgian television during a court appearance. The former Georgian President and Ukrainian Governor has been in custody since his return to Georgia in 2021, and recently his health condition has significantly deteriorated. Zelensky wants Saakashvili -- whom he made a Ukrainian citizen in 2019 -- to be transferred to a clinic in Ukraine or the West.

Other Topics of Interest

Shift in Ukrainian Attitudes Toward War Endurance as Belief in Russia’s Resources Grows

Between February and October 2023, the proportion of Ukrainians who believe Russia retains substantial resources for a prolonged war against Ukraine nearly doubled, rising from 22% to 49%.

3.     The build-up to the NATO Summit in Vilnius proceeded. “We are watching the Vilnius summit from morning to night and are constantly negotiating,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said. “Now, we have entered a very intense phase of negotiations. They are not easy.” Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a telephone conversation with President Zelensky. Zelensky said that he and Scholz “coordinated positions on the eve of the NATO Summit in Vilnius and discussed the formats of future security guarantees for Ukraine.”

4.     Seven civilians were killed and more than 20 injured in Russian drone and artillery attacks on the northeastern city of Sumy and its surrounding region yesterday. President Zelenskyy said that Russian forces attacked residential buildings and a Security Service of Ukraine building in Sumy with Iranian drones on the night of July 2-3. There were also 170 Russian artillery hits across the region, according to the local military authorities. 

5.     Investigators launched the International Center for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine at The Hague, which will investigate whether Russia’s war in Ukraine meets the legal definition of the crime of aggression. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, called the beginning of the center’s work a “first step” toward bringing Russian war criminals to accountability.

6.     Unilever has been added to the list of international sponsors of war by a Ukrainian anti-corruption agency. The multinational food and hygiene products company produces 400 brands including Rexona, Dove, Lipton and others. The basis of the listing is that Unilever continues to operate, trade and pay taxes in Russia where its profitability has doubled during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine Summer Offensive Summary

Snapshot

Ukraine threw jabs in six operational theaters stretching from Kherson to Luhansk. Russia counterpunched. Ukraine says 180,000 Russian troops are now deployed in eastern Ukraine. A new battleground near Luhivske in western Zaporizhzhia was reported.

General Developments

·      Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed concern that the F-16 training schedule for Ukrainian pilots has slipped. “There was a promise to start the training in June from one of the countries,” he said. “Now, they say that they are continuing preparations for the start of the training, they made a mistake in the calculations, they need more time. But we do not have time, so we are speeding everything up as much as possible.”

·      Russia has deployed over 180,000 troops to the Lyman-Kupiansk and Bakhmut fronts, according to Serhii Cherevaty, spokesman for the eastern group of the Ukrainian military. “A rather powerful group of forces has been deployed [on the Lyman-Kupiansk front]: over 120 enemy units.”

·      German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said “dozens of Leopard 1A5 tanks” that were allocated to Ukraine by Germany and Denmark will be delivered “in the coming weeks.” Rheinmetall is currently upgrading 24 Leopard 2A4 tanks financed by the Netherlands and Denmark for January 2024 delivery.

Operational Aspects in Luhansk, Avdiivka, Marinka, Kherson and other areas

·      Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions in east (left) bank Kherson region near the Antonivsky Bridge as of July 2, according to ISW. A full description of the situation there is available here from Kyiv Post’s military analyst, Stefan Korshak.

·      Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to engage in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna frontline in Luhansk, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, according to ISW.

·      In Luhansk, pro-Russian sources said Russian forces attacked at the Serebryanka forest near Dribova, but Ukrainian troops held their positions. 

·      Geolocated footage published on July 1 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced northeast of Volodymyrivka (12 kilometers southeast of Vuhledar) in the western Donetsk region, ISW said.

·      A furniture factory in the Moscow region caught fire.

Operational Aspects in Zone A. TO518 / Mokri Yaly River Axis - boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

·      Russian sources claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia regional border area, according to ISW.

·      Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces attacked at Pryutne.

·      Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down a Russian Kamov Ka-52 “Alligator” helicopter in southern Ukraine.

Operational Aspects in Zone B. Western Zaporizhzhia

·      Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted limited offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia region and have advanced as of July 2, according to ISW.

·      Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces had successfully attacked near Luhivske, 10 kilometers west of the Dnipro River and taken “a series of positions”.

·      Russian sources said Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations south and southwest of Orikhiv in the western Zaporizhzhia region, according to ISW. Zaporizhzhia regional occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced towards Russian trench positions near Robotyne (12km south of Orikhiv) and that there is ongoing close combat in these trenches.

·      A Ukrainian milblogger stated that “after Ukrainians pushed Russians from the last line of fortification in from of Robotyne, the Ukrainians shifted their focus to the flanks. The main goal of the Ukrainians right now is to improve their tactical position around Robotyne before attempting to take it… The Ukrainians have already managed to advance by almost 5 kilometers on a 16-kilometer-wide front. Advancing by 5 km does not give the Ukrainians a strategic advantage: the Ukrainians are still 20 kilometers away from Tokmak and 70 kilometers away from Melitopol.”

Operational Aspects in Zone C. Bakhmut

·      Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks around Bakhmut, according to ISW.

·      “Our troops are advancing with battles on the southern flank in the area of Klishchiyivka. At the same time, fighting continues on the northern flank,” Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar posted on Telegram.

·      “However, the situation is changing very rapidly. Control over the same positions can be lost and regained twice a day. The enemy actively reacts to all our actions and creates three lines of defense in threatening directions,” Malyar explained.

·      Pro-Russian sources said Ukrainian forces attacked at Ozeryanivka, Kurdyumivka, and Klishchivka, and Russian forces counterattacked at Berekhivka. 

President Zelensky’s Message

FYI Kyiv Locals

As reported by the legendary Vechirny Kyiv, A Kyiv high school student received a massive surprise when her dad, a soldier serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, came home on one day’s leave for her graduation ceremony. He was armed with a big bouquet for his daughter.