According to Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom), the Russian Federation is concentrating many missiles and ammunition near its borders with Ukraine.
“The threat of massive shelling on the territory of Ukraine with S-300 missiles is obvious. Considering the arrival of several trains [from Russia] before Aug. 20, it is clear that the Russians are preparing to attack Ukraine on Aug. 24,” StratCom said on its website and Telegram channel.
Independence Day is traditionally a national holiday in Ukraine, celebrated annually on Aug. 24 in honor of the adoption by Parliament of the Act of Proclamation of Independence of Ukraine. The country gained independence in 1991 following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
StratCom reported that, in early August, Russian trains with ammunition consisting of 28 wagons left Ulan-Ude, Russia, with 32 units of missiles designed for the S-300 air defense system. This train is set to arrive at the border with Ukraine on Aug. 20.
StratCom also reported 440 TPKs (transport-launch containers) for the S-300 missile systems in Dzhankoy, Crimea. However, on Aug. 16, an ammunitions depot exploded near the village of Azovskoye, Dzhankoy district. It remains unclear whether or not the 440 TPKs were destroyed.
Meanwhile, the Russians appear to be preparing for a heavy missile attack from the territory of the Republic of Belarus. They have transported missiles for the S-300/400 air defense system to the Zyabrovka airfield, located 22 kilometers from the border with Ukraine. At this location, there is reportedly a concentration of S-300 missiles and in excess of 60 TPK units.
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 4, 2024
Oleg Zhdanov, a military expert and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that Belarus is already preparing for a massive missile attack on Ukraine on Independence Day. He believes that the enemy can attack from three sides at once – not only from Belarus but from the Black Sea and Russia.
“In my opinion, preparations are underway in Belarus. Most likely, they will conduct a massive strike that will involve the maximum number of launchers and the maximum number of missiles,” the expert explained in a TV marathon.
For their part, there is evidence that the Russian occupiers also expect a major attack from the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Independence Day.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, in an intercepted conversation between a Russian soldier and his mother, the soldier mentioned that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were supposedly going to launch an attack on Aug 24. He claimed to have been told that information by Russian Intelligence.
“On August 24, they will attack us with huge forces. They want to arrange a demonstration execution,” the soldier said.
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