ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 3, 2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces appear to be setting conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal from parts of Bakhmut.
• Russian officials continued to release limited information about the March 2 incursion in Bryansk Oblast but failed to provide clarity about what actually transpired.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin did not address the reported situation in Bryansk Oblast in an emergency meeting with the Russian Security Council according to the meeting’s readout.
• Russian authorities continued efforts to portray Russia as the only safe operator of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), likely to constrain the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presence at the ZNPP and compel the de facto recognition of Russian ownership of the ZNPP.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Donetsk Oblast front line as Ukrainian forces appeared to prepare for a controlled withdrawal from at least parts of Bakhmut.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to increase government oversight of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian occupation authorities continue to prepare occupied territories for the September 10 Russian regional elections.

Authors: Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan.

See full report here.