President Zelensky stated in an interview for Sky News that he would be prepared to end the “hot” war in exchange for NATO membership, even if the Russian Federation did not immediately return our captured territories”
This sent a shock wave throughout the pro-Ukrainian camp: – “Oh no, is he capitulating?”
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No, not at all! Here are three points that show that this is not the case and that it is in fact a very clever move.
First:
What decision the US/NATO will take regarding the Russian war in Ukraine will depend to a large extent on how the warring parties – Ukraine and Russia – will approach what Washington wants to initiate – negotiations.
Whether they are prepared to negotiate and what conditions they will put on the table will determine the attitude and reaction of the USA/NATO.
As electrifying as it was for many, with the sentence quoted above Zelensky showed openness for negotiations. And made it more difficult for Putin to present himself in sheep's clothing, as the Russians will not accept a “future return” of the Donbas region or Crimea.
Russia’s response to this will almost certainly be negative – no progress in the negotiations...
Zelensky showed openness for negotiations. And made it more difficult for Putin to present himself in sheep's clothing
Second:
Zelensky’s statement about the possibility of leaving the eastern territories under Russian occupation sounds iconoclastic. But he backed it up well with the language and terms he used.
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Firstly, he described this concept as “temporary” and said that in order to end the “hot phase of the war, we would later have to reach a diplomatic agreement on the return of the occupied territories”
Secondly, he emphasized that neither side could legally recognize Russia's right to these territories and turn the occupation into an annexation of these territories by the Russian Federation.
Russia cannot legally declare the Donbas or Crimea to be part of Russia, nor can Ukraine cede these territories – however, Zelensky was not referring to the internationally recognized principle of the inviolability of borders, which prohibits the forcible alteration of existing borders.
The President referred to the Ukrainian constitution, according to which the cession of territories would violate the fundamental principles of the country's governance
So, what the President talked about was most definitely not ceding territories.
What the President talked about was most definitely not ceding territories.
Third:
Zelensky has put the ball in NATO's court. A curveball.
"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take the Ukrainian territory we have under our control under NATO's umbrella and later agree to return the occupied territories through diplomatic channels,” he said.
We all know that it is very unlikely that NATO and the US will take Ukraine now, because they say, oh, but Ukraine is in a state of war.
Zelensky does not need to repeat the obvious: Yes, Ukraine is at war because you, NATO, have rejected Ukraine in the past and left Ukraine at the mercy of the hostility of the colonial power, and then you, NATO, did not deliver what you could have delivered and what you promised Ukraine – the weapons with which the Ukrainians could have driven the Russians out of the country!
However, he made direct reference to the opinion circulating among NATO members that Ukraine is on the front line where it is (not the best position) because of a lack of manpower/personnel. No, it's because of the lack of weapons and equipment – Zelensky cited that Ukraine had requested equipment for 10 military brigades to counter Russian aggression, but Western partners have only fully equipped 2.5 brigades.
He added: “Some leaders told me that we need a younger draft age. I said, "Do you want them to die without your weapons?”
So yes, he is calling NATO out. And he again proposes what would be the optimal solution and would not cost NATO anything – admitting Ukraine to the club.
“We should put the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control under the protection of NATO, we need to do that quickly. And then Ukraine can get the other part of its territory back," “he said.
He again proposes what would be the optimal solution and would not cost NATO anything – admitting Ukraine to the club.
“We should put the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control under the protection of NATO, we need to do that quickly. And then Ukraine can get the other part of its territory back," “he said.
It's not a “ceding” anything – on the contrary, it's a hard ball because NATO and the US are in the old Cold War mindset of “not irritating Russia.” And Russia is irritated that Ukraine is slipping out of Russia’s “sphere of influence,” to use an outdated term from the Cold War. And the US, the beacon of democracy, is walking on eggshells around Russia, which has turned into a criminal organization protected by the status of a sovereign state.
Oh, and by the way – all those nuclear threats from the Russians that so many who parrot Russian propaganda use as an argument to continue to protect Russia and not hurt Russia, not antagonize Russia – Russia itself just buried those threats, when it warned the US about the launching of the Oreshnik missile – lest the US military mistake it for an intercontinental ballistic missile armed with nuclear warheads that would trigger pre-emptive action by a US nuclear submarine. The warning clearly shows that Russia has no intention of attacking NATO and that the threats are only intended to intimidate the public.
To summarize Zelensky’s call – let me quote my Quora Friend Jerry:
“Zelensky has played a strong hand with his recent remarks, effectively shifting the narrative. Now no one can claim that Ukraine does not want peace or that Zelensky's demand to retain control over certain territories is the reason no agreement has been reached. His aim is to show both the West and the world community what Russia's true intentions are. Russia will oppose any of Zelensky's concessions because its ultimate goal is to subjugate Ukraine and ensure that no part of the country joins the West.”
And as for the storm that the president's statement has caused among Ukraine's supporters – hold on tight! There will be more shocks, even a rollercoaster.
The next few months will be about talking, talking and talking again, and not with the meek and more or less friendly Blinkens and Sullivans (let’s leave aside a debate about the extent to which they, especially Sullivan, are to blame for the reluctance to adequately arm Ukraine, which has brought Ukraine to the current situation on the front – not a good one).
The new team Zelensky will have to deal with are basically wolves. Do not count on the pro-Ukrainian stance of Keith Kellogg – he may be a friend of Ukraine, but as my other Quora friend Warren (pro-Ukrainian Trumpist) notes, Kellogg may have the requisite understanding of the war and Putin and set the right goals, but bringing Ukraine and Russia to an acceptable compromise will be the hard part, and unfortunately he will be under constant pressure from the faction around Donald Trump, which is not pro-Ukrainian.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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