In September 1999, the Russian FSB blew up four apartment buildings in Moscow and several other cities, killing over 300 people and injuring more than 1000. The FSB, under the control of Russian Prime minister and former FSB director Vladimir Putin, then sent FSB agents to blow up a fifth apartment building in the Russian city of Ryazan, but his agent were caught in the act by ordinary Ryazan cops on the beat.
Unfazed by this exposure, Putin, proceeding according to plan, blamed the bombing of Chechen terrorists and used the resulting hysteria to massively escalate Russia’s murderous war on Chechnya while accelerating his own march to dictatorship.
The details of this operation were made public by dissenting FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko, who published a complete expose in his noteworthy book Blowing up Russia. His book was the primary reason that Putin had Litvinenko poisoned, signing the assassination for all to see by using radioactive polonium tea as the murder weapon.
Now Putin is at it again. Russia’s war on Ukraine is flagging and, as propounded by many Russian nationalist commentators, can only be saved through mass mobilization. Russia’s prewar standing army has been severely damaged in fighting to date and the unreliable, disease-ridden prison sweepings collected by Putin’s limited conscription order have proven of little worth in combat. If Russia is to prevail, the nation must be led to believe that it is under attack so that more capable citizens rush to the colors, or at least accept the necessity of being drafted. War fever is necessary.
While the Biden Administration Dithers, Ukraine Burns
I feel there can be little doubt that, on May 3, Putin bombed the Kremlin. The facts of the incident, in which a tiny slow-moving drone drifted up to the flagpole atop the Kremlin Senate Palace building and then exploded before cameras assembled for the occasion leave little doubt as to Putin’s authorship.
The type of small drone that appeared to be used in the attack has a range measured in tens of kilometers, not the hundreds needed to reach to Kremlin from Ukraine. The speed of its approach would have made it vulnerable to be shot down by an average duck hunter, let alone the hundreds of sharpshooters and extensive sophisticated multi-layer air defense systems assembled around the Kremlin. Furthermore, the Russians have GPS jamming systems active all-around Moscow and especially at the Kremlin. This would make it impossible for the drone to be navigated for its targeted stage appearance before the waiting cameras. In all probability, the drone was probably deployed by the two men, seen atop the Kremlin Senate Palace Building itself, shortly before the explosion.
Further proof of Putin’s authorship, if any were needed, is provided, the Kremlin’s immediate, unified, and well-rehearsed response to the event, with the entire pro-Russian chorus all joining in. As the well-informed Institute for the Study of War noted:
“If the drone attack had not been internally staged it would have been a surprise event. It is very likely that the official Russian response would initially have been much more disorganized as Russian officials scrambled to generate a coherent narrative and offset the rhetorical implications of a clear informational embarrassment. The Kremlin has notably failed to generate a timely and coherent informational response to other military humiliations not of its own making, including the falls of Balakliya and Kherson City in September and November 2022.
“The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this incident in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience.” [Emphasis in original]
While Putin’s attack on the Kremlin seems to be an obvious fake, it is nevertheless significant because it demonstrates clear intent on his part to generate the level of hysteria needed for mass mobilization. His direction on this is very clear. Putin does not intend to negotiate peace. He intends to fight to win. For that he needs a new army. But it will take some time for him to create it.
Russian forces are currently weak on the battlefield. But they won’t be in six to twelve months. Therefore, the time to win the war is now. Ukraine is planning a major offensive, using Bradley fighting vehicles, Leopard tanks, medium range HIMARS rockets, assorted howitzers, and various ex-soviet armaments that the US and its NATO allies have provided. These may be enough to prevail. But the outcome is by no means certain.
The odds in Ukraine’s favor could be greatly improved if the US provided it with even a small fraction of the 6000 M1 Abrams tanks, 2000 F16 fighters, 350 A-10 ground attack aircraft, 2000 Apache helicopter gunships, 3000 ATACMS long range missiles, and many types of advanced air defense systems that we have in stock. Unfortunately, the Biden administration is either slow-rolling or outright refusing to deliver Ukraine these vitally necessary systems.
There is no valid excuse for holding back these arms. Ukrainian defeat would eliminate a million man army allied to the West, cure a key strategic weakness holding back Russian aggression against the Baltic States and advance Russian forces to the borders to NATO allies Poland and Romania. In such a situation, the US would have to position massive forces in Europe to help defend the continent, costing us vast amounts of treasure and critically weakening our ability to contain Chinese expansionism in Asia.
Yet while President Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken have said that the US stands by Ukraine, Joint Chief of Staff Chairman General Miley has adopted the point of view of a spectator, saying he doubts Ukraine can win this year, even as he refuses to send the equipment it needs to do so.
War is not a spectator sport. Not only the fate of Ukraine, but the entire direction of the global contest between the Western alliance and the Eurasian autocratic axis could be determined in the next few months. We need to rise to the occasion now.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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