Today, the New York Times ran “I’m Hearing High Anxiety From Democrats Over Biden’s Debate Performance” and “Biden’s Truth Was Overshadowed by his Stumbles.”
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Continuing the theme of pessimism, NBC noted that “‘Babbling and ‘hoarse’: Biden’s debate performance sends Democrats into a panic,” which was no better than Reuters’ “A ‘disaster’: Biden’s shaky start in debate with Trump rattles Democrats,” and in-line with The Hill’s “Biden debate performance is ‘nightmare’ for Democrats.”
On the topic of Ukraine, neither candidate said anything different from what they had previously, nor did either address how they would lay the groundwork for a Ukrainian victory.
Biden discussed Ukraine’s importance considering global politics and NATO – things that are abstract and won’t necessarily resonate for most voters.
Conversely, Trump spoke directly to the worldview of the average voter, arguing that Europeans should pay more of Ukraine’s costs; that Biden’s failure in Afghanistan led to the Ukraine invasion – something that he said was aggravated by Vladimir Putin “not respecting” Biden.
It Comes Down to Which Side Wants it More – My Focus Groups from Georgia and North Carolina
The result?
In focus groups, done by Frank Luntz, 10 out of 14 “undecided voters,” half of whom voted for Biden in 2020, said after the debates that they now lean towards Trump.
Presently, Trump is already leading in all seven “battleground states” and by more than five points in four out of seven of them.
“The expectations for tonight, for Biden, were to just show up and look alive – and he blew it!”
Historically, Donald Trump’s biggest problem with voters has been his personality, as many feel he is “unhinged.” Trump’s success today, said one Washington DC operator with whom I spoke, was being more “disciplined” than anticipated.
Joe Biden, however, did nothing to change the public’s perception that he is too old. Biden sounded, looked, and behaved as if he was too old. Or, as one respondent in Luntz’s focus groups said, “The expectations for tonight, for Biden, were to just show up and look alive – and he blew it!”
In Democratic circles, there is significant concern that Democrats may be on the highway to losing the White House – which would likely drag down their candidates in Senate, House, and state-level races.
However, it is not yet written in stone.
Observers have noted that Democrats still have 68 days until the Democratic Convention – plenty of time to replace Biden as the head of the ticket.
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