JP Morgan analysts have reviewed its GDP forecast for 2019 for Ukraine improving it from 3.6 percent to 4.3 percent along with the sharp growth of GDP to 4.6 percent in the second quarter compared with the expected growth of 3.8 percent, according to JP Morgan survey of emerging markets of Eastern Europe.
According to the document, analysts have no doubt that GDP growth will exceed 3 percent in 2019. They reminded that the payments on Ukraine’s GDP warrants will depend on how far this line is exceeded.
According to JP Morgan, the growth of economic activity in the country due to the reforms promised by President Volodymyr Zelensky may surprise by the end of 2019. In particular, they note the possible impact of land reform on the growth of business activity, although they do not yet take it into account in their forecasts.
Analysts at JP Morgan also improved their forecast for forex reserves, to $23 billion from the previously expected $19.2 billion, without taking into account the International Monetary Fund (IMF) tranches this year.
If the forecast comes true, the level of forex reserves will be the highest since 2012, but still will not exceed the $28.3 billion required by the IMF, the analysts said.
