China might replace Russia as Ukraine’s largest, single nation trading partner if growth rates in bilateral commerce between the two countries remain steady or increase, newly-released data indicates.
According to new numbers shared by the Ukrainian Ministry for Economic Development and Trade on Nov. 5, at the first day of a major international trade conference in Shanghai, bilateral trade between China and Ukraine has increased by 21 percent from January through to August this year.
If the upward trade trend remains steady – as most observers and analysts expect it should – the China-Ukraine trade total will likely pass $8.7 billion by the end of 2018 and hit $10 billion by 2019, trade officials have said.
By comparison, Ukraine-Russia trade was $11.1 billion at the end of 2017 and hasn’t changed much – indicating that China is firmly on the right path to overtake its northern neighbor by the end of 2020 if growth remains steady or increases.
The European Union, a bloc of 28 European member states, is still Ukraine’s largest commercial partner by far with total bilateral trade estimated at $40 billion and increasing by about 27 percent per year, according to the European Commission.
Ukraine goes to China
For their part, Ukrainian officials seem keen to deepen and strengthen trade relations with the Chinese as much as possible and have taken that message to Shanghai and Beijing.
In China this week, a large Ukrainian delegation of top executives and lawmakers is attending the first China International Import Expo (CIIE) from Nov. 5 to 10.
Company bosses representing 19 different corporations from across different sectors in Ukraine, as well as politicians from different government departments, will pitch Ukraine to Chinese state companies, banks and investment funds to further strengthen their interest in Ukraine.
Ukrainian business executives and lawmakers have said they plan to hold meetings with a host of powerful Chinese players in Shanghai and Beijing throughout the week: state-owned companies like the China Railway Corporation, China Road and Bridge Corporation and the Pacific Construction Group will hold roundtable meetings with Ukrainian counterparts who are looking to strike a deal.
But China is already interested in Ukraine and has been flexing its investment muscle here over the past few years.
Chinese state-backed or state-owned companies have been investing millions of dollars – with billions more to come – in an effort to improve rail, road, river and sea infrastructure that aids better trade with Ukraine and Europe.
While this has mostly been about getting Chinese goods to European marketplaces, China is now looking to significantly improve food security and boost imports too – $30 trillion of goods over the next 15 years, according to President Xi Jinping as he opened CIIE in Shanghai.
Read more on Ukraine-China trade relations here as well as the Kyiv Post’s interview with Chinese Ambassador to Ukraine Du Wei.
