One year ago, Ukraine’s political scene underwent a significant change. An actor, who had portrayed his country’s leader for a TV series, was elected president in real life. Subsequently, his new political movement named Servant of the People won the parliamentary ballot. The promise to end the war with Russia was a major component of what made the victory possible. It is not easy to assess whether Zelensky has been able to deliver on it.
Two international initiatives of a political and diplomatic nature – the Normandy Format and Minsk Peace Process – were created to solve the conflict over Donbas. Unfortunately, there are no efforts to try to return the illegally annexed Crimea to Ukraine. Over the past couple of years, the Normandy Format and the Minsk Peace Process were essentially non-existent. Since 2015, the conflict has not escalated into a full-scale war but deadly fire is being exchanged pretty much on a daily basis. Ukraine has already suffered around 14,000 casualties, both military and civilian. In consequence, Zelensky tends to be criticized for his inability to put an end to the armed conflict.
The president and his political camp rebuke such claims and argue that following a few years of stagnation, direct dialogue with Moscow was established and the Normandy Format got back to work. As a result, three prisoner exchanges have been held so far. The filmmaker Oleg Sentsov was among those fortunate enough to return to Ukraine. According to Zelensky’s critics, the exchange was not fair and the person suspected of shooting down the Malesia Airlines aircraft in 2014 walked scot-free.
It is true that Zelensky has been seeking compromise with Russia. Poroshenko’s supposed hard-line policy was only hard-line on paper. It led to the conflict’s stagnation. Zelensky tried to communicate with Putin directly. Apart from prisoner exchanges, links to the Luhansk Oblast were re-established and several hot spots in Donbas were extinguished. Zelensky was willing to compromise even further by indicating his readiness base conflict resolution on the Steinmeier Formula and to allow representatives of the separatist forces to join the negotiating table. The fact that Zelensky’s willingness to compromise did not enjoy a positive response from Moscow is another argument the president’s critics like to raise.
Zelensky’s “turbo regime” is still met with a lukewarm reception in Europe. The recent land and banking reforms were noticed and appreciated. Following the adoption of this legislation, the European Union awarded Kyiv with over a billion euros to help it fight with the pandemic. However, recently the recent reshuffle in the Ukrainian government did not go unnoticed in Europe. The replacement of the head of Ukraine’s diplomacy is particularly hard to comprehend.
It seems that the Biden related ordeal no longer creates confusion in Kyiv’s relations with Washington. The US is making it clear that it acknowledges Ukraine’s geopolitical importance. This past Wednesday, Ukraine’s government approved a memorandum on the prospect of importing at least 5.5 billion cubic meters of LNG a year from the United States. Helping Kyiv diversify its energy needs is crucial after its main supplier waged a war against it.
Overall, the assessment of Zelensky’s foreign policy is rather positive. Kyiv was able to avoid escalation. It even achieved a slight detente. The Normandy Format was reactivated. The Franco-German tandem is no longer openly advocating for Russia’s case. Zelensky was successful in exposing Putin’s bellicose attitude and his own willingness to cooperate, which finds a great deal of appreciation in Brussels.
Zelensky managed to beat Vladimir Putin on the PR field. The world was reminded that Ukraine is a victim of Russia’s aggression. In consequence, even though discussions on getting back to business as usual with Moscow reverberate in certain parts of Europe, the conflict has not been forgotten. Russia is unable to get rid of the economic sanctions that still serve as a punishment for its aggression.
Witold Jan Waszczykowski is a Polish politician. He was the minister of foreign affairs between 2015 and 2018. Waszczykowski was a Member of the Sejm (2011–2019) and has been a member of the European Parliament since 2019.
