Half a year ago this
scenario seemed unreal. It seems that it would take an enemy of both Russia and Ukraine to make enemies out of two peoples with
centuries of common history.
However, current events
indicate that the most nightmarish, the most bloody scenario of
fratricidal war is already developing. This is not our war, this is
not your war, this is not the war of 20-year old paratroopers sent
out there. This is Vladimir Putin’s war.
Why does he need it? Well,
he has openly answered this question himself. “We need to start
negotiations about politically organizing a society and
statehood in southeastern Ukraine.”
He made this statement
only now, but the sending of saboteurs-separatists, weapons, and a persistent desire of Putin to force Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to sit at the negotiation table with pro-Putin militants, many of whom are
Russian citizens – all of this betrayed his intentions long before
the public confession.
The words of Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, which followed those of Putin, that Putin was
misunderstood about the statehood of the east of Ukraine, should not
be taken seriously. He talks nonsense all the time. Things like
“Putin is married to Russia.” So, once again, Putin himself said: “We need to start negotiations about a political organization of
the society and statehood in southeast of Ukraine.” End of quote.
Until lately the goal of
Ukraine’s dissection has not been set publicly, but instead replaced
with the idea of so-called federalization. Kremlin’s hypocrisy lies in its attempt to impose on Ukraine and its people something that actual Russian citizens are deprived of because Russia itself has not
had any sort of federal state for a long time, since 2004.
Feeble attempts to
advocate for the interests of the regions – primarily for the
financial ones – are suppressed in a cruel way.
So, Putin is trying to
dissect Ukraine and create in the east of the country a puppet
state, Novorossiya, that is full economically and politically controlled by the
Kremlin.
It’s crucial for his clan
to control metallurgy in the east of Ukraine, as well as its military-industrial complex. Moreover, southeastern Ukraine is rich in shale
gas which would create real competition for the business of Putin’s
Gazprom.
A disastrous tourism
season in Crimea, with a sharp decline in the number of tourists,
unheard of price hikes for goods and services, a shortage of drinking
water, is pushing Putin’s regime towards the annexation of southeastern Ukraine to create a ground corridor to the peninsula.
To achieve these goals,
Putin brought in his troops, including paratroopers and Chechen
leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s men. This is why he supplies weapons and
heavy artillery to the east, and this is why he doomed Russia to
isolation and sanctions.
These are the paranoid
goals for which Russians and Ukrainians are dying while Russia itself
is sinking into lies, violence, obscurantism and imperial hysteria.
It’s easy to brush it off
by saying that he is insane. Many people occasionally think so,
including this author. But there is also another explanation.
Through his bloody
actions, though, he his fomenting a fratricidal war; one can see his
main goal – preservation of personal power and money at any cost.
Before the war his popularity rating was crawling down slowly but
surely.
Despite censorship, little
by little the society started to understand that those in power are
greedy and amoral people whose main goal is personal enrichment.
The Party of Thieves
(Editor’s Note: This is a common derogatory reference to Yedinaya
Rossia, the ruling party of Russia) was losing its position and
needed a large-scale shakeup, which would reverse the trend and
restore popularity and trust.
Ukraine became an example of
an anti-criminal revolution, which overthrew a thieving president. Oh so
you dared to get out onto the street and throw off a president?
Ukraine needs to be punished for it to make sure that no Russian
would gets these thoughts.
Moreover, Ukraine chose the European way, which implies the rule of law, democracy and change of
power. Ukraine’s success on this way is a direct threat to Putin’s
power because he chose the opposite course – a lifetime in power,
filled with arbitrariness and corruption.
Now, to make sure he does
not end up behind bars for violating the constitution of the
Russian Federation because sending troops to a foreign state
without the approval of the Federation Council of Russia, as well as the violation of Russia’s international obligations on non-proliferation
of nuclear weapons, Putin does not leave himself any maneuvers except to stay in power until his death.
So his behavior looks like
madness, but in fact it’s a cold strategy for lifelong despotism.
Often supporters of the
idea of Russian World (Editor’s Note: This idea implies the
existence of a trans-national community united by its love of Russia,
its culture and language) explain Putin’s aggression in Ukraine
by saying that post-Soviet republics, including Ukraine, is the zone
of vital interests for Russia.
Instead of showing the
world an example of rule of law, security, development and high quality of life, implanted into the minds of people is the concept of raw
force and threats. However, he achieves the opposite result.
Ukraine is already heading
for NATO, even though before the war it had a non-aligned status. The
actual North Atlantic Treaty has grown stronger, the bond between
America and Europe has become more durable than before. Moreover,
Putin’s aggression consolidated the Ukrainian people, and the fight
for independence and territorial integrity became the national idea.
In other words, none of
Putin’s goals have been achieved. The opposite is happening.
Boris Nemtsov is a leader of Russia’s RPR-Parnas liberal party and the Solidarity opposition movement and a deputy of the Yaroslavl Oblast’s legislature. He was the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod oblast in 1991 to 1997 and a deputy prime minister of Russia in 1997 to 1998.
