A military intervention in Ukraine would be as disastrous for Russia as the invasion of Afghanistan
was for the Soviet Union. Moreover, bombing Ukrainian historic cities would be against the Russian
propaganda of one Slavic family with common roots, and would have a profoundly negative impact on Russian public opinion.
That said, Russian strategy involves more efficient tools to try to disrupt Ukraine, such as cyber-warfare and blockades of ports to disrupt trade. The latter option would also – fortunately – create big diplomatic problems for Russia due to major international economic interests in Ukrainian ports of southern Ukraine, especially in Odesa.
This article looks at the countries with key investments or trade partnership arrangements with Ukraine.
China
China is Ukraine’s main trading partner. It is the main importer of Ukrainian grain (20% of total exports in 2021) followed by sunflower oil (15%). China depends on Ukraine’s supply and it would be very expensive and difficult to substitute those food commodities. Moreover, it is the main exporter to Ukraine (US $8.25 billion in 2020). The volumes of imports/exports with China pass mainly through Odesa’s ports, where Chinese companies are partners in several port infrastructure projects.
Not surprisingly, the Consulate General of the People’s Republic of China in Odesa has the largest building among the local diplomatic corpus. Considering the importance of the current military and technological alliance between Russia and China, it would be politically embarrassing to cause problems for the Chinese population, and the Chinese government would certainly not pleased.
Germany
Germany’s biggest investment in Ukraine is the CTO-Container Terminal Odesa, which is a member of HHLA holding, the main German logistics player. The majority stake of the holding is in the municipality of Hamburg, the German maritime capital, making the project a German national investment.
Germany is also the main client of Russian gas, through Nord Stream 1 (and potentially Nord Stream 2). A Russian blockade of the Odesa Sea Port would penalise the turnover/incomes of HHLA. If Germany is not already prepared to fight for Ukraine against Russia, it will not hesitate to protect its own investment interests.
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
DP World is the logistics champion of the UAE (Dubai, Abu Dhabi) and a strategic foreign investor in Yuzhny port, the first port of Ukraine.
QTerminals, the logistic company from Qatar, won the tender for a three-year concession at Olvia Port (former Oktyabrsk) in Mykolaiv region. These Persian Gulf States are financial powers with the potential to use relevant funds for political purposes, so it would be risky to disappoint them.
Switzerland
This peaceful and rich country in the centre of Europe has two big port investments bearing a Swiss flag: Risoil S.A., a holding of agro-industrial companies and main terminal operator of Chornomorsk port, and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) S.A., the world’s largest shipping line.
Both companies have their legal identity and headquarters in Geneva, notwithstanding the real investors not being Swiss. Considering the size of Russian deposits in Switzerland, it would not be wise to hurt a country with the power to open data about its clients, who may be subject to international sanctions.
The Netherlands
Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) is another big investor in Odesa Sea Port, where it owns a big terminal. The old French merchant holding, involved in agriculture, food processing, international shipping and finance, is today based in Amsterdam and has its head office in Rotterdam.
The main shareholder of LDC is the widow of the last leader of Louis-Dreyfus family, the Russian businesswoman Margarita Louis-Dreyfus (born Margarita Olegovna Bogdanova) from St. Petersburg, who received a law diploma from Moscow University.
USA
Finally, it is worth mentioning the agriculture giant Cargill Inc., the world biggest family business from Minnesota and the biggest US investment in Ukrainian ports. The company built the new Neptune GrainTerminal in Yuzhny Port in partnership with the Odesa’s TIS Group of Terminals.
To sum up
Of course, this is not a deterrent to an assault. “War is nothing but the continuation of politics by other means,” said the Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz. This effectively means that military actions should follow political logic.
If this logic can be applied to the present situation, the risk of a blockade by a Russian fleet is very unlikely, because it is not politically smart for Russia to increase the number of hostile nations. If, on the other hand, madness is pushing the actions of the bellicose state, the future becomes unpredictable.
