This was a big win for Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the March 31 first-round election. All those people who said that Zelenskiy voters were young, soft and would not come out and vote were proved wrong.
Zelensky out-performed expectations in the first round, with 30.46 percent as of 71.27 percent of votes counted.
President Petro Poroshenko’s team will be relieved that they got into the second round, beating ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, but they must be disappointed with only 16 percent of the vote despite all the benefits of incumbency. They must have hoped that when people got to the ballot box they would vote for what they knew — stability and security. In an age of anti-establishment candidates, incumbency is a chain around Poroshenko’s neck. I cannot see him ridding himself of that major handicap.
The second round run-off vote will be bitter, with gloves off from the Poroshenko camp, trying to expose Zelenskiy’s lack of experience versus “the commander in chief.” But Zelenskiy is unlikely to engage. The question is whether Poroshenko can get any punches to land.
Interesting speaking with some Poroshenko supporters in Kyiv, and they still think their candidate can win. I just cannot see it, unless Zelenskiy self-destructs. This is Zelenskiy’s election to lose.
But looking at the math, he has 30.5 percent, I think the eastern vote for Yuriy Boyko and Oleksandr Vilkul will mostly fall for Zelenskiy, or they will not vote. I think that could push Zelensky up to 40 percent.
Poroshenko probably will take most of ex-Defense Minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko’s vote. Or maybe not, given that ex-Finance Minister Oleksandr Danylyuk and ex-Economy Minister Aivaras Abromovicius have sided firmly now with Zelenskiy. But I give two-thirds of this vote to Poroshenko.
Ex-Security Service of Ukraine head Ihor Smeshko’s 6 percent might also mostly go to Poroshenko.
I am not sure about Tymoshenko and Oleh Lyashko, but that’s 18 percent combined, so could be the defining vote. Tymoshenko and Zelenskiy’s teams likely will be talking, but I don’t see a formal link-up as being to the benefit of either. But I would guess that most Tymoshenko’s voters will go for Zelenskiy, as she will likely think her best chance of becoming prime minister would be under a Zelenskiy presidency. I cannot see Tymoshenko trusting Poroshenko much after her experience with Poroshenko after the 2004 Orange Revolution that brought Viktor Yushchenko to power. And she would see a weak Zelenskiy presidency as her best chance of dominating the political scene through the Rada, and perhaps after constitutional reform.
Putting the above together in my mind its a real uphill struggle for Poroshenko to win now from here in the second round.
For me also its really notable that both Danylyuk and Abromavicius have declared for Zelenskiy. Both will be important gatekeepers for the Zelenskiy team, and Danylyuk must have his eye on the post of prime minister under Zelenskiy, albeit getting there could still be tricky given the Verkhovna Rada mix, and the current constitution. It might be difficult ousting Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman this side of parliamentary elections.
But I think for Western donors, and investors, the fact that Danylyuk and Abromavicius are part of the Z team is critical.
A Zelenskiy win obviously fits into the anti-establishment wave being felt globally – Donald Trump, Brexit, et al. But I think it is important that Zelenskiy’s outlook is much more centrist/liberal and having Danylyuk and Abromavicius holding the economy portfolios will provide considerable reassurance to markets. A Zelenskiy team could be a reform outcome – if well-managed. As long as reformers remain center stage in the team, and the likes of billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky are kept at arms’ length, the markets could buy in.
Interesting that I attended the Ukrainian Institute election special in London on March 31, speaking alongside journalist Katya Gorchinskaya. It was a good session, but my most notable takeout was the lack of any cheers upon the announcement of the exit poll and Zelenskiy’s first-round win. Obviously, there were no Zelenskiy supporters in London, or not at this session at least.
