Bloomberg news has reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin says he’s instructed Foreign Ministry to submit draft resolution to United Nations for deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine. Peacekeepers can be deployed only along contact line separating Ukrainian military from rebel forces after direct negotiations with separatists’ representatives, Putin says at a news conference in Xiamen, China. Putin also said that possible delivery by U.S. of weaponry to Ukraine may provoke rebels to use force in other parts of country, Putin says
This is a pretty clear message from Putin to the U.S. — if you step up military assistance to Ukraine, with defensive weaponry: a) it will have not military impact; b) the rebels will launch attacks elsewhere in eastern Ukraine. This is a none-too-hidden threat of escalation/retaliation from Moscow. Note that the new U.S. envoy to Ukraine peace talks, Kurt Volker, had suggested that the debate over arming Ukraine had stepped up a gear again in Washington, D.C. – albeit it is still assumed that U.S. President Donald J. Trump, like Barack Obama, would veto any such advice from his generals.
The offer of peacekeepers is an old one from Putin – and will be unacceptable to the Ukrainian side. This is an offer to support peacekeepers between the two opposing sides at the moment, which Ukraine will argue will just cement the current conflict. They want peacekeepers across the current occupied territories, and including control over the border with Russia, to stop the continued re-supply of rebels from Russia.
Given the current focus on North Korea, and the need to keep Moscow on its side with respect to United Nations Security Council resolutions, I doubt the U.S. administration will want to push this issue at present. Perhaps this is also why Putin is currently pushing this issue – he knows the U.S. wants something now, over North Korea, and he is looking for concessions himself, e.g. banging the peace-keeper idea over Ukraine, which is an old one. The imposition of peacekeepers in Donbas along the current line of conflict would likely significantly reduce the costs to Moscow now of sustaining the (separatists) militarily, while Moscow would still keep its optionality of intervening elsewhere in eastern Ukraine as noted from his comments over a reaction to the U.S. arming Ukraine.
