Robert Hamilton: Russia’s forever wars

September 2021 marks the sixth anniversary of the Russian Federation’s intervention in the Syrian civil war. A patient, flexible strategy set against irresolute and muddled Western strategies allowed Moscow to achieve its initial aim of preventing the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime. The Kremlin also re-established itself as a player in the geopolitics of the Middle East. Barely two years into the intervention, pundits were hailing the Kremlin’s victory. Four years after these premature declarations, much of Syria remains outside the control of Russia and its allies, who seem to have no idea how to turn their initial military success into a political victory. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by a small but potent U.S. military presence, still control the northeastern third of the country. A U.S. garrison and the security zone around it dominate the critical Al Tanf, region where the Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi borders meet. The volatile province of Idlib in Syria’s northwest hosts an array of groups—from al Qaeda’s former Syrian affiliate to Turkish-backed militias—all dedicated to Assad’s ouster. An escalation there in early 2020 very nearly brought Russia and Turkey into direct military conflict. Having failed in its attempt to rebuild the Syrian Army and have it assume the lead in the war, Russia has been quietly reinforcing its contingent in Syria, which some estimates now put as high as 13,000.

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