Protest activity in Belarus has not subsided after more than a week. On the contrary, it’s gaining momentum. Citizens spontaneously go into the street in several regions at once, human rights activists give advice to victims of the law “on parasitism,” lawyers promise to defend every activist of the protest movement. The most diverse segments of the population are joining, not only the urban “creative class.” Against this background protests with more local significance have been sparked, for example against the construction of an office complex at the vicinity of the Kuropati Memorial.
It’s not so simple to understand exactly what is going on in Belarussia: a real “Maidan,” normal popular dissatisfaction without political undertones, or the same destabilization from Russia that has been feared for a long time. Even more complicated is the fact that the Belarussian protests seem to be a mixture all of these elements.
I was in Belarus in the autumn of 2011 in the midst of the “revolution via social networks” movement, or the “applause revolution” during which people were arrested for applauding in the street as a symbol of protest. I observed all the details of the “reserve of socialism:” an all-powerful KGB, the repression of any manifestation of dissidence, a ban on the activities of any not officially registered (i.e. not under the eyes of the KGB) organizations and participation in any sort of meeting; massive denunciations, repressive laws, “preventive” arrests, and the like. Six years ago, as today, Belarussians went into the streets not only “for your and our freedom,” but for even more mundane reasons. At the time, during the financial crisis, living standards in the country fell precipitously: incomes fell by nearly 300% while prices continued to climb. The average monthly salary in Belarussia barely exceeded one hundred dollars. The reasons for such popular unrest (political as well as economic) were perfectly understandable.
Now something similar is happening. Wages have dropped for the third year in a row, the number of redundancies exceeds those with work, and the cost of living is rising with a corresponding increase in families living below the poverty line. Against this background the Belarussian authorities have decided to fulfill “Decree No.3,” signed two years ago by Aleskandr Lukashenko, according to which citizens who aren’t working and are not counted as unemployed but still use government social services must pay a fine of 200 dollars. As a result all sorts of people have received bills, including mothers on maternity leave, – according to some statistics 20 percent of Belarussian families is affected.
Thus growing social dissatisfaction is not only justified, but completely natural. No less natural is the fact that the Belarussian opposition (whose representatives for decades have suffered from repression, many of whom are unable to return to their native country) gladly mounted protests as a sign of national “awakening” and in hopes of realizing both economic and long overdue political demands.
Nevertheless, despite the validity of the current protests the moment for organizing a full-blown “Maidan,” I think, was poorly chosen. At a time when the new American President is fully occupied by his own battle with the press and national intelligence services, the country until recently considered the leader of the free world is in fact “excluded” from active international affairs. With German and French elections in the offing these countries also are occupied with internal problems and are less capable of limiting Russian interference in these problems.
Unfortunately there are not so many powers in the world prepared to support the genuine desires of Belarussians for freedom and a better life. By the way, the Belarussian opposition itself understands this and admits that the people are on their own in the battle with the dictatorship. In this regard some Belarussian experts fear that the wave of protests might be exploited by Russia. Even before the start of national unrest the experts of the Minsk-based Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies predicted that their country could become Moscow’s next target.
“The Kremlin’s next possible step could be at attempt to organize a government coup in Belarussia. The idea would be to take advantage of this event as a pretext to send troops into the Republic and establish their permanent presence. In essence this would mean the liquidation of Belarussian sovereignty,” opines the Director of the Center, Arseniy Sivitskiy.
Center analysts conclude that the authorities were surprised by the protests and that Aleksandr Lukashenko was not fully informed either of the situation in the labor market or the potential for protests in the country. Also worthy of note is the main supporter of the Decree, former Prime Minister Mikhail Myasnikovich who is reputed to be pro-Russian. None of this excludes the fact that the situation in Belarussia might actually be used by Russia as a means to help a friendly candidate win election. For example, Duma Deputy Konstantin Zatulin openly stated that Lukashenko’s problems are the result of his “flirtation” with the West and the fact that Belarus “never supports us on any conflict issue.” Pro-Kremlin mass media also hint that a “Maidan” might begin in the neighboring country allegedly due to the work of western non-government organizations (NGO’s).
In this context it’s especially amusing that Russian “professional anti-Maidanites” of the NOD movement, notorious for their “battle with color revolutions” are calling on their supporters to take part in protests – true, with “St. George Ribbons,” obviously hoping to direct the protest movement in a direction they desire.
Belarussian society has come to a peculiar dead end from which it is difficult to find a good exit. On the one hand, Belarussians cannot and must not become reconciled to the arbitrariness of the authorities and the introduction of a clearly incompetent and corrupt decree. At the same time in an authoritarian state that lacks independent courts and a system of checks and balances against presidential authority, protests are the only way to exert any popular influence on the decisions of the authorities. On the other hand, in the absence of reciprocity from the government and the lack of will in the West to support Belarussians this country could become the next target for Russian provocations.
