On 7 September, the European Union extended its sanctions blacklisting more than 100 Russian and Crimean officials. A few months from now, in January 2017, the EU will decide on whether or not to extend its economic sanctions against Russian organisations, including several defence companies. The officials and entities targeted by previous and ongoing sanctions were involved in the Russian annexation of Crimea in March 2014. The extension of the blacklist and the possible renewal of full EU sanctions raise the question of how long Putin is willing to accept continuous economic loss, and whether this policy will lead to any Russian attempts at escalation or de-escalation in eastern Ukraine.
Despite the initial success of Russia’s hybrid warfare, there are those in Russia – especially in Crimea – who now question the wisdom of continued fighting and its impact on their livelihoods. Crimeans have dealt with increased inflation in food prices and a collapse of tourism, a vital sector of the local economy that had been reliant on visitors from the rest of Ukraine.
