Faced with overt and undeniable Russian military aggression, tantamount to a declaration of war by all reasonable interpretations of international law, Ukraine’s allies have so far failed to respond in an adequate way.
For all the talk of upholding Ukrainian sovereignty and defending its territorial integrity, supporting European integration and the importance of Ukraine as NATO’s eastern flank: what are Ukraine’s allies doing, when it really matters?
It takes 30 seconds and 90 characters to issue a strongly-worded condemnation on Twitter. It’s easy, quick and it has almost no value.
But for every single G7 country and NATO member state, it’s all they’ve been able to muster so far, after Russia attacked Ukrainian navy vessels in neutral waters, gunned down, wounded and captured their sailors and illegally seized their vessels on Nov. 25.
Warning about the prospect of further aggression from Russia, even a full-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine as tanks, troops and aircraft reportedly mass near the Ukrainian border, lawmakers in Kyiv put in place martial law on Nov. 26 and the fear and uncertainty here in the Ukrainian capital is palpable.
And still, Western leaders seem incapable or unwilling to do little more than draft strongly-worded statements. As Europe’s largest country comes under attack, the silence from the leaders of Ukraine’s most important allied countries is absolutely deafening.
And Moscow is grinning from ear to ear as they pay close attention to such a weak response.
Russian forces might have been attempting to provoke Ukraine into a confrontation, but the resulting circus in the Ukrainian corridors of power over the last twenty-four hours probably doesn’t interest the Kremlin as much as the reaction – or lack thereof – from Washington, Brussels, Strasbourg, and London.
This is a test for Ukraine’s so-called allies as much as it’s a test for the Ukrainian leadership.
The Kremlin wants to know how much it can get away with. If the response so far, in the last day or so, is a measure of that, then Moscow will likely feel emboldened to push even further.
There is still time for NATO and the West to respond, but the question on everyone’s lips is how and whether the political will and strength to do so exists.
Colonel Richard Kemp, former commander of British Armed Forces in Afghanistan, thinks that NATO should respond quickly and robustly to Russian aggression in the Sea of Azov. “In addition to increased sanctions & military-technical support, NATO should immediately deploy warships to the Sea of Azov to guarantee freedom of navigation,” he said.
He’s not alone in stating this and some analysts have gone further, suggesting that a multinational naval force pass through the Kerch Strait – now essentially Russian-controlled – and dock at the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, in order to protect international shipping and counter further Russian attempts to attack foreign ships and illegally blockade the strait.
The time has also surely come for Russia to be faced with proper, potentially crippling economic sanctions if it doesn’t finally agree to abide by international law.
The United States, the United Kingdom or France could be the logical parties to lead such efforts and could impose asset freezes on Russian state-owned energy companies and banks, while seizing the property and assets of the legions of corrupt Kremlin officials in London, Paris and New York.
Only a firm hand will finally persuade the gangsters in Moscow that there is an incentive to abiding by international law.
Most importantly, Ukraine and Europe need to be confident that there is a substantial and powerful NATO presence in the Black Sea to uphold the law, protect commercial shipping and deter aggression, much like there is in the South China Sea.
But not just token patrols by Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey. The Black Sea is a critical intersection for trade and security and it needs to be properly protected by a formidable maritime task force with teeth and torpedoes.
And Ukraine, despite admirable efforts to seriously boost its military capacity, still needs the means to properly defend itself: they cry out for anti-air capabilities, radar installations, anti-ship missiles, and counter electronic warfare equipment.
Ukraine is not looking to wage war on any neighbors, it’s simply seeking the means to properly defend its territory and people.
At Ukrainian Week in London this October, Ukrainian and British officials all agreed that a safe and secure Ukraine is necessary for the safety and security of Europe.
The time for talk from Ukraine’s so-called allies is long over. It’s time to act.
