Editor’s note: Iryna Fedoriv is the chief editor at Chesno, a watchdog initiative that promotes fair election process.
Since Leonid Kuchma, who served two terms from 1994 to 2005, no president has been re-elected in Ukraine. None of the presidential parties were able to stay in power for more than one term, too. Interestingly, it is the local elections that can help us understand why.
President Volodymyr Zelensky demonstrated the highest level of electorate mobilization in the second round of the 2019 election that put him in office. Arguably, more citizens have the right to demand more from him than from any other president elected in Ukraine.
Such a high level of trust was a favorable starting point to decisively launch the reforms and to transform the culture and underlying principles of political party building. Zelensky and his team had 18 months between his victory and the October local elections to develop their party structure and avoid the mistakes of his predecessors.
However, real party building is time-consuming work which includes deciding and agreeing on the ideology and values as well as recruiting the professionals who are committed to bring this ideology to life while not crossing the red lines.
Presidential election results in Ukraine. (Chesno Movement)
Many find it much easier to follow the old schemes. Instead of bothering to develop the Servant of the People into a real party, the President’s Office tried to succeed in the October local elections by making deals with the mayors who have toxic reputations but have already developed their own networks to collect the votes — with practices that include bribing voters with gifts.
This, in particular, was revealed in the ruling party’s approach to recruitment of the mayoral candidates in towns and villages of Kyiv Oblast, which was scrutinized by the Chesno movement. In these circumstances, mainly the sitting mayors were re-elected using the brand of the Servant of the People. Some of them have kept their posts since the times of ex-President Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions.
Fighting for small towns’ mayors
As a result of their approach, the Servant of the People lost in all oblast-level cities.
Now, to present the local elections as a success, the party communicates the results referring to the number of the councilors’ mandates it received. When it comes to this indicator, the Servant of the People indeed held the first position.
To achieve this result, the party of the central authority initiated the process by which candidates in all cities and communities with more than 10,000 voters had to be nominated by parties. This encouraged the current mayors and councilors to seek an association with a party brand.
To understand the effect that this had on the local elections, we can compare the election results in 2010, 2015, and 2020.
The percentage of mayors and village heads won by representatives of political parties in local elections in 2010, 2015, and 2020. (Chesno Movement)
In all three elections, self-nominated mayoral candidates were the most successful category. They are the ones whom political parties did not manage to attract. Still, it is obvious that the introduction of the party system in all communities with over 10,000 voters had its effect: In the 2020 local election, the number of the self-nominated winners was much smaller than in previous elections.
The second most successful category is always the nominees of the ruling party. In 2010 it was the Party of Regions, in 2015 it was the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko (known today as the European Solidarity), and in 2020 it is the Servant of the People.
In the 2010 results, we see that the party which brought ex-President Victor Yushchenko to power, Our Ukraine (Nasha Ukraina), dropped to the seventh position and didn’t get even 1% of the newly-elected mayors. After Yanukovych’s escape in 2014, his Party of Regions split into several groups, namely the Opposition Bloc, Nash Kray, Vidrodzhennia and several regional projects. However, all together they did not get even 5% in the 2015 local elections. By contrast, the Party of Regions in the 2010 local elections nominated more than 31% of the winners.
In the 2020 local elections, the European Solidarity, formerly the ruling party, won less than 3% of mayoral seats. As for the Servant of People, they were twice less successful in the local elections compared to the Party of the Regions in 2010, and three times more successful than the European Solidarity in 2015.
The Opposition Platform – For Life and Nash Kray, two projects with roots in the Party of Regions, won some 7% of mayoral seats in the 2020 election.
Next is Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna party that retains a stable support of about 4%, and always comes second or third in local elections. It is not necessarily a sign of successful party-building but definitely demonstrates that voters of Batkivshchyna are consistent in their views.
The percentage of representation in the local governments has increased for the Svoboda party. While in 2010 the party won only 0.5% of the mayoral seats, in 2020 its representatives won 1.3%.
In each local election, most of the top 20 results belong to the new parties. This is more evidence confirming that Ukrainian politicians opt for inventing new party brands instead of building real parties.
There is no wonder that in this situation city mayors retain their power while changing party brands to gain the support of the central authorities — who, in their turn, help out the mayors by keeping a blind eye on the criminal investigations against them, and enhance subsidies allocated for their cities, which mayors can spend the way that is best for themselves, not their community.
Why is retaining power in the regions so crucial?
If we keep aside the results of mayoral elections and take a look at the results of political parties in the local election, the tendency will remain the same.
In 2010, Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine barely managed to reach 1%, while the Party of Regions got 33.6% of the vote. However, already in 2015 the Party of Regions barely won 5%. Nevertheless, in 2020 the Party of Regions’ successors — the Opposition Platform – For Life, Nash Kray and Opposition Bloc — together received over 14% of votes.
The percentage of seats in local councils won by representatives of political parties in local elections in 2010, 2015, and 2020. (Chesno Movement)
The 2020 local elections were quite successful for Batkivshchyna. The party which had less than 6% of all mandates, received 10% as a result of this election and keeps the second position for three election cycles in a row.
The European Solidarity and Svoboda improved the results and increased the percentage ratio of their representatives in the local councils. These parties have 9% and 2%, respectively.
However, it is important to mention that after the election reform, candidates for local councils with over 10,000 voters have to run under a party banner. Thus, this year, parties had new areas for growth even though many communities were amalgamated, and the overall number of council members was decreased by three times.
The requirement to pay an election deposit did not cut off the marginalized parties or projects, as it was expected, but made it more expensive to run. While in 2015 candidates were nominated by 90 parties, in 2020 this number rose to 111 parties.
Every election cycle brings a large number of new party brands. One out of two political parties in Ukraine changes its name, and it usually happens right before the election.
The management of political parties does not demonstrate a commitment to developing their parties. Thus, it becomes necessary to rebrand the parties before the election and spend money to promote the new brands instead of investing these funds in party building and systematically work with the community to prepare for the next election cycle when the county will vote for the central authority, namely the president and the parliament.
Iryna Fedoriv is the chief editor at Chesno Movement, a watchdog initiative that promotes fair election process.
