Violence is Spreading
At least two people were killed and about 100 have been injured today in the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek after some 8,000 protestors clashed with riot police in the city’s central square. The anti-government demonstration was sparked by yesterday’s protests in western and central parts of Kyrgyzstan. Earlier today the demonstrators in Bishkek had gathered to demand the release of the three opposition leaders—Almazbek Atambayev, the former prime minister and current leader of the Social Democratic Party, the former parliament speaker Omurbek Tekebayev and his aide Bolot Cherniazov. All three were detained after the riots broke out. Atambayev was detained yesterday evening after the first anti-government protests broke out in the morning in the western city of Talas. A few thousand demonstrators managed to seize control of the local authority building, oust the regional governor and appoint their own candidate, Koysun Kurmanaliyev. By this morning, the demonstrations had spread from the west to the central towns of Naryn and Tokmak, only 50 km away from the capital. Police in both cities denied rumours that local government buildings were under the control of demonstrators. However there are contradictory reports from witnesses, who claim that the regional governmental building in Tokmak has also been seized and a number of policemen have been injured in clashes with the protestors.
Following today’s deadly clashes of the police with the protestors, Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov has declared a nationwide state of emergency. While the demonstrations continue in parts of the country the government is likely to resort to more violence to disperse them and secure government buildings from falling under the protestors’ control. Both the United States and Russia have called on Bakiyev’s government to refrain from using violence and to settle their differences with the opposition through peaceful dialogue.
Prelude to Another Revolution?
The last time Kyrgyzstan saw nationwide demonstrations was in March 2005. Then, the popular uprising—later known as the Tulip Revolution—ousted the authoritarian president Askar Akayev and installed the opposition democratic leader, Bakiyev. Since the revolution Kyrgyzstan, once dubbed "the oasis of democracy in Central Asia", has regressed from a democratic society into yet another regional autocracy. Bakiyev himself has metamorphosed from a democratic leader into an authoritarian ruler. By laying off some 40% of the civil service and putting all key ministries under his direct control, Bakiyev has created a highly centralised power in which the parliament and prime minister’s office have insignificant power. The opposition has been gradually marginalised and its media outlets intimidated or simply closed. In fact the past two days’ protests have been sparked by the verdict of a Bishkek court that ruled on 5 April that the opposition Forum newspaper had breached a law banning the media from calling for the unseating of the state authorities. Following the court order, the law enforcement agents had seized computers and other hardware in the offices of Bishkek-based web portal Stan-TV, which has been often openly critical of Bakiyev.
Internationally, Bakiyev has also discredited himself. After abandoning the promised democratic reform policies, Bakiyev has had rocky relations both with the West and Russia. He has been openly exploiting the country’s strategic proximity to Afghanistan where NATO-led forces are involved in anti-Taliban military campaign. In 2009 Bakiyev ousted the NATO military units from Kyrgyzstan’s strategically important Manas airport, demanding higher rent for the military facility. Concerned with securing an important military base in Central Asia as well as gaining a safe land passage to Afghanistan the U.S. administration has decided to turn a blind eye to Bakiyev’s deteriorating democratic credentials and agreed to pay the high price for the use of Manas.
Outlook and Implications
The political violence is likely to continue in Kyrgyzstan. With most of the opposition leaders arrested, the crowds of protestors are effectively left without a leadership that could launch talks with the government and avert a further escalation of the instability. The state of emergency requires citizens not to assemble in public places, but the demonstrators are not likely to abide by these rules. Angered with the deaths of fellow protestors they may instigate new violence. Bakiyev’s presidency is weakening as the political developments continue. Given the incumbent’s resolve in recent years to concentrate power in his hands only, it is difficult to see how a political compromise may be found. Conversely, there is not much political will amongst Kyrgyz voters to tolerate any longer the nepotistic and increasingly corruption central and regional governments. Falling living standards as well as rising unemployment in the wake of the global economic crisis have contributed to the tension. The number of discontented citizens has also risen as scores of young men were forced to return home, mainly from Russia, as work is no longer available there.
The bullets that killed six protestors in Bishkek today most certainly put an end to the Tulip Revolution and it may well take another popular uprising to sweep away its controversial legacy.
IHS Global Insight Russia and CIS political analyst Lilit Gevorgyan’s can be contacted at [email protected].
