After four years of war so costly in life and treasure that Europeans labeled it the “war to end all wars,” Neville Chamberlain may be forgiven if he allowed his passion for peace to overcome his judgment in believing Hitler’s “peaceful” intentions when he returned from Munich with the assurance of “peace in our time.” He was Hitler’s “useful idiot” and idiots are to be pitied- not vilified.
But can we also be as charitable to our Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has already frittered away two critical victories Vladimir Putin desperately needs to end Russia’s sanctions and isolation and to escape all blame for the war and Ukraine’s ultimate loss of sovereignty?
Unlike Hitler, Putin has neither misrepresented nor backed off from his intentions. Russian strategy and tactics in its takeover of foreign states are well known and there is ample evidence – both overt and covert – as to the strategy it intends to pursue in Ukraine. Ukrainians are not and have not demanded “peace at all costs” but are prepared to hold the line however long it takes so long as Ukraine’s security is not traded away. The war is costing Ukraine but it is costing Russia considerably more. The Ukrainian economy has been improving and has accommodated itself to the war.
So what – other than Zelensky’s own hubris – is driving him to concede major points that could risk Ukraine’s break-up or capitulation?
His predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, despite the cost of 14,000 lives, building up the military, and massive social disruption and economic hardship, never lost sight of the one cardinal rule that must be applied in any “peaceful” resolution with the Russians: Never ever give even the slightest concession, because that will never bring peace, but simply an escalating demand for more.
And when a concession is made, it should cost the predatory side an even bigger concession, because Ukraine is not the aggressive and responsible party. It is about the peaceful, law-abiding citizen that should offer concessions to the thug. If the other side insists on concessions as a condition of peace, then leave the negotiating table, return to the country and explain to the nation the reason why the price for peace is too high. Then, systematically, deliberately, and quietly continue the military build-up and look for every possible way to increase the cost to the Russians. In due course, the Russians will tire of it, the players will change, and Russia will even offer compensation to win back Ukraine’s trust.
But Zelensky has taken the contrary course. He has agreed to use the Steinmeier formula as a basis for “peace” talks even though the “formula” was accepted by Poroshenko with a gun pointed to his head. The formula should have been renounced by Zelensky when he took office and a new one – much less risky for Ukraine – proposed. Or, at the minimum, Zelensky should have agreed to accept the formula but only on Ukrainian terms….a “take it or leave it” proposition.
Zelensky’s most recent agreement to negotiate officially with the Donbas stooges is a huge, reckless, and perhaps irreversible concession. It will be difficult for Ukrainians to continue to insist, as Poroshenko has, that the one party responsible for the break-away of the two “republics” is Russia. Regardless of how the Ukrainian government may couch the issue, Europe, the US, and Russia will be happy to “reset” it as the rapprochement of two sides in a “civil war” meeting to resolve their differences Zelensky has always had this mistaken view and now he has decided to legalize it. Despite applause from foreign quarters, all of them will now take the position that Ukraine’s war (which until now has been with Russia) can be pushed off to the side as a squabble between cousins. All parties will claim that the sanctions will continue but they will slowly begin disappearing.
Putin, for his part, will now be completely free to keep the war going as long as he wants, claiming that he no longer is responsible for what his puppets in Donbas may want to do and it is up to Ukraine to strike a “peace” deal with those puppets. Zelensky, for his part, will increasingly start slicing the sausage of concessions and feeding it to the thugs in order to keep up the fiction of his “peacemaker” skills.
And Ukraine may well end up paying the price.
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