Not only the New Year is here, but also a new decade is upon us, filled with new hopes and opportunities, as well as the enduring challenges from the past.
Between 2010 and 2020 Ukraine continued its zig-zagged course as an independent state towards a democratic European future. It remained preoccupied with the unfinished business of transition from old to new systems at home, and self-identification as a sovereign European state.
In both 2010 and 2019 presidential elections amounted to political sea changes. After the hopes raised by Ukraine’s Orange Revolution of 2004 were disappointed by President Viktor Yushchenko, 2010 saw the election of Viktor Yanukovych as president bringing regression both in the domestic and foreign spheres. Corruption soared to new heights as he consolidated a system best described as a kleptocracy. Despite paying lip service to the commitment already undertaken by his predecessors towards an alignment with the European Union and eventual integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, he moved the country closer to Russia, politically and economically, and watered down Ukrainian elements.
At the end of 2013 Yanukovych’s last-minute refusal, under Russian pressure, to sign a political and trade association agreement with the European Union, triggered off protests on Kyiv’s Maidan Square. His heavy-handed methods to suppress the protests precipitated a veritable Revolution of Dignity in which millions participated. Eventually, 100 days in the protests, after scores of protestors were killed, Yanukovych was forced to flee and within a few months a new president, Petro Poroshenko, and parliament were elected.
The Revolution of Dignity, better known as the EuroMaidan Revolution, was not just a revolt against a corrupt government cynically manipulating the rules to serve its ends and moving Ukraine back into Russia’s fold. It was a reassertion of core principles around which Ukraine was supposed to rebuild its life: independence, integration with Europe, both politically, economically and as regard value systems, the rule of law, greater openness, and curbing corruption and the excessive influence of the oligarchs.
Vladimir Putin’s Russia was not prepared to allow such a democratic transformation on its doorstep and for Ukraine to slip free and move westward. Disguising its direct intervention by pretending what was happening was the reaction of local “Russian speakers” who felt threatened by the Ukrainian resurgence, first, it seized Crimea and then occupied part of the Donbas.
The Ukrainian state, enfeebled by the graft of the Yanukovych years and the pitiful state in which the Ukrainian armed forces had been left, was caught off guard. Crimea was occupied and annexed by Russia without a shot being fired, but in the east thousands of volunteers rallied to the country’s defense and heroically stopped what was de facto a creeping Russian invasion.
During the next five years under Poroshenko, Ukraine managed to stand its ground and to begin recovering. With Western support and strong patriotism at home, it quickly rebuilt its armed forces. The international community condemned Russia’s aggression and applied sanctions against Moscow which are still in force.
Nevertheless, the war in the Donbas has continued to simmer, and after thousands of casualties and over one and half million displaced, the conflict remains hardly frozen. Even now, after 20 attempts, a general ceasefire has still to be established. The international system has proved ineffective in brokering a peaceful resolution to the conflict, let alone standing up to the Kremlin’s broad-ranging hybrid warfare both at the front and waged around the globe.
Yet there here have also been encouraging developments after the Revolution of Dignity. Ukraine signed the association treaty with the EU and benefitted from the results, including visa-free travel westward for its citizens. It received considerable financial support from the international institutions contingent on reforms being pursued at home and corruption being curbed. There has been modest but steady economic recovery and reform has proceeded, though not at the pace that was expected and has been needed.
As a result of the half-hearted approach to reform and the failure to tackle endemic corruption, especially at the highest levels, and to rein in the oligarchs, Poroshenko received a massive vote of no confidence in the presidential and parliamentary elections held in the first half of 2019. A political newcomer, actor and businessman Volodymyr Zelensky triumphed in the polls and appeared to restore flagging hopes and morale. He won not only as a result of a protest vote, but the strong desire for change in the way the country has been run and his pledges to seek to end the war
By bringing in a new political team and returning to reforms in key sectors, Zelensky has sought to reboot the system. As we enter 2020, the jury is still out as regards his initial performance, but at least there appears to be a fresh wind blowing in the sails and his ratings are still reasonably high. Abroad, the difficulties remain numerous and complex and it is still unclear whether the recent Normandy Four summit in Paris on Dec. 9 will produce any tangible results. In the U.S., the unfolding drama around the impeachment of President Donald Trump, with his relations with Ukraine figuring so prominently, has not helped matters.
In short, this decade and last year have seen strange times. Who would have imagined 10 years ago that during the next decade Ukraine and Russia would be at war, that Crimea and the eastern Donbas would under Russian occupation, that impeachment proceedings against an American president would center on his dealings with Ukraine, and that the country would become, among other things, a battlefield for U.S.-Chinese economic and strategic interest? Or that millions would be displaced not only by war but by economic difficulties at home and a brain drain?
So, as Ukraine enters a new decade, it once again has to address perennial issues: putting its house in order, protecting the independence and territorial integrity of the country, economic recovery, and bolstering its ties with friends and allies. Déjà vu perhaps, but that’s the name of the game.
In this festive season, one can only hope for Ukraine that, in the words of Joe Cocker, it will get by as a result of its own determination and with “a little help from its friends.” This country still has a lot to learn and to change, and yet so much to offer. May the New Year and decade bring it what it deserves.
