Two years after I left Ukraine and retired from a 32-year United Nations career, I returned again recently, invited to talk on Ukrainian-European Union economic relations.
It has been an opportunity to see how much this great country has changed since then, and indeed since the Orange Revolution, on the eve of which in late 2004 I first arrived to head the UN system’s development cooperation efforts there.
Ukraine is still failing to adequately “walk the talk” on its European integration aspirations."
– Francis M. O’Donnell is a former United Nations resident coordinator.
Sadly, little has changed since 2009, and only a little more since 2004. Ukraine is still failing to adequately “walk the talk” on its European integration aspirations.
Recent measures at “modest political liberalisation” are seen by some as cynical manipulations that obscure an underlying abuse of power. Censorship and restrictions on civil society have returned, though not without protest. Trade with the EU has plummeted.
Trader and investor confidence have sunk, and agricultural exports have been blocked, to the detriment of substantial American and European investors. Notwithstanding Ukraine’s World Trade Organization entry, arbitrary rent-seeking administrative controls continue.
Despite improvements in fiscal, deregulation and tax policies, budgetary support from the European Commission has lately been put at risk.
The very real possibility of a default on Ukraine’s growing mountain of debt, now more than 80 percent of gross domestic product, is now recognized. By the end of 2010, about 39 percent of the total debt was short-term, with $42.1 billion due in the coming weeks by mid-2011.
Pressure for change seems postponed by continuing below-market pricing of energy, subsidized by Russian gas supplies discounted in exchange for the 30-year prolongation of its lease of Black Sea Fleet facilities in Sevastopol.
Some have considered this $40 billion gas-for-fleet accord to be a mortgaging of Ukraine’s independence.
President Viktor Yanukovych is pressed to have Ukraine join a Russian-dominated customs union, and if he does, Ukraine can say goodbye to any aspirations for a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, the next lever of reform.
This would be unfortunate, because the progressive adoption of European norms and standards is the best way to anchor reforms and to achieve broad-based prosperity in Ukraine.
Any sense of authoritative national ownership over the outputs has been absent, preventing any prospect of meaningful outcomes."– Francis M. O’Donnell is a former United Nations resident coordinator.
But also, because if Ukraine wants to fully play its role as politically-central player in the construction of a better European-wide peace and security architecture, then it has to do a better job of balancing its legitimate interests for good relations with Russia alongside its justified aspiration to join the EU.
Since the Orange Revolution, and indeed before, successive governments, regardless of political color, have paid lip service to European integration, and the acquis communaitaire, the body of EU law.
Yet, multiple reports and batteries of recommendations by international mixed commissions of experts, and local think tanks, along with intensive advisory services, have had little impact.
Any sense of authoritative national ownership over the outputs has been absent, preventing any prospect of meaningful outcomes.
This is unlikely to change in the short and medium term, and it may be better if the international community would concentrate on securing government and parliamentary action on basic constitutional change, along the lines the Venice Commission recommends, and as urged again recently by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
This is essential for a clear and effective separation of powers, as well as adequate checks and balances between the executive, the legislature and the judiciary, a prerequisite for political stability.
The rest is detail, and in the right climate, with the right leadership, it would come about. For now, that climate, and the enabling environment, are missing.
The opportunity to address growing popular frustration is there – if Ukraine’s leaders achieve historic greatness by bringing about rapid reforms that dramatically transform its standing in Europe, and capitalize on a particularly friendly forthcoming Polish presidency of the European Union, as both prepare for Euro 2012.
Ukraine should seize this opportunity of renewed international interest and forthcoming Polish-European Union presidency support, to embrace reforms robustly."
– Francis M. O’Donnell is a former United Nations resident coordinator.
As Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said recently during a visit to China, on whether Ukraine could join the BRICs group [Brazil, Russia, India, China], Ukraine needs to solve its problems quickly, and emerge from crisis to become a great nation.
Ukraine should seize this opportunity of renewed international interest and forthcoming Polish-European Union presidency support, to embrace reforms robustly.
Getting its constitution in line with European values and standards will lay the governance foundation for further reforms, essential to fulfill Ukraine’s European destiny.
Ukraine would score very big if it did pursue such constitutional change, given the Venice Commission and Germany’s protest that EU values have been breached by the new constitution adopted by Hungary – current holder of the EU presidency.
Francis M. O’Donnell is a former United Nations resident coordinator and United Nations Developmment Project resident representative in Ukraine from 2004-2009.
