ANALYSIS: Warsaw Insider - Zelensky in Warsaw: The Takeaways

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Warsaw on Wednesday, Jan. 15, much like the Polish prime minister’s visit to Lviv in December 2024, marks the culmination of efforts since November to improve the political climate between Ukraine and Warsaw. During the press conference, both leaders agreed that Ukraine’s path to the EU must be based on friendship and mutual understanding, including addressing difficult topics.

Donald Tusk emphasized that relations require a language of empathy, as well as concrete actions and the fulfillment of national interests. He also referenced a one-on-one conversation he had with Zelensky, describing it as direct and specific, adding that Poland should take care of Polish interests while Ukraine should focus on Ukrainian interests. During the joint press conference, Tusk sounded friendly and cooperative but also assertive. This could be interpreted as a signal to the electorate, which includes both strongly pro-Ukrainian stances and disappointment over prolonged historical disputes.

Beyond general statements, much was said about the future. Cooperation is not only about the war but also about mutual interests and the future. This can be seen as a hint of tough negotiations ahead regarding Ukraine’s accession to the EU, particularly over competing sectors, primarily agriculture and transportation.

The Polish prime minister also noted that Poland’s presidency of the EU will break the deadlock seen in recent months. Until Dec. 31, 2024, the presidency was held by Hungary.

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Tusk added that Poland’s support for Ukraine’s European aspirations is unconditional. It is expected that Poland’s efforts could help open two to three out of the six negotiation chapters between Ukraine and the EU.

Another topic discussed during the meetings was the participation of Polish companies in Ukraine’s reconstruction. During the conference, Tusk mentioned that Zelensky had declared “cooperation at a level Poland deserves.” The third summit on Ukraine’s reconstruction is set to take place in Poland, while the second will soon be held in Rome.

Poland among security guarantors?

Another key topic discussed by the President of Ukraine with the President and Prime Minister of Poland was security and its future guarantees. Both Polish leaders expressed that Ukraine would not join NATO before the war ends, and challenges may arise even afterward, as some member states might oppose it.

However, Poland will not be among those opposing, as it supports Ukraine’s aspirations regardless of internal political disputes. Duda and Tusk spoke on the matter in a similar vein, despite being strongly at odds with each other.

In Warsaw, discussions also touched on security guarantees for Ukraine, including the potential deployment of a Western military contingent. President Zelensky supported this idea but emphasized that it is not sufficient. Tusk pointed out the difficulty of reaching a unified Western position on the issue. He also distinguished NATO security guarantees from Ukraine’s accession to the alliance. The Polish Prime Minister highlighted Poland’s readiness to work on providing full NATO guarantees for Ukraine and stated that Poland, as a NATO member, would be prepared to participate.

However, it is important to note that no decisions will be made without the involvement of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, or Germany. Ukrainian and Polish leaders also discussed cooperation between their defense industries and joint investments in this area. Moreover, Poland is preparing its 46th aid package for Ukraine.

Volhynia issue – difficult matters

The topic of the Polish-Ukrainian historical dispute was raised during Wednesday’s meetings. President Zelensky did not address it directly during the conference but was asked about it by journalists. Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine and Poland must resolve these issues, build a better future, and remain united – especially as Russia poses a common threat.

Polish leaders elaborated further on this issue. Prime Minister Tusk expressed hope for a swift and systematic resolution, allowing families to bury and commemorate their loved ones. He also thanked Ukraine for its sensitivity to the matter.

President Duda, on the other hand, stressed the need for a positive response to Poland’s requests for grave searches and exhumations from the 1943 massacres in the Volhynia region perpetrated by the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). He also pointed out, in response to a journalist’s question, that the exact wording on plaques commemorating the murdered is currently of secondary importance.

Some Polish communities, however, expect a clear indication of the perpetrators in the inscriptions. Kyiv Post sources within the Polish administration indicate that ongoing work by diplomats and politicians is focused on burials and dignified commemoration. Otherwise, both sides risk getting bogged down in hundreds of nuances and mutual grievances.

Kyiv Post sources from the Ukrainian administration confirm there is genuine goodwill on Kyiv’s part to address this issue systematically, which has negatively affected relations between the two countries for years.

The culture ministries of Poland and Ukraine also issued a joint statement announcing the initiation of efforts to resolve historical disputes. These efforts are to be conducted in a spirit of openness.

Indeed, since November 2024, a breakthrough in this matter has been observed. The issue is gaining new momentum, as previously reported here. On Friday, Jan. 10, the Polish Freedom and Democracy Foundation announced that it had received permission to conduct work in Puźniki, Ukraine, as reported by the Polish Press Agency. Experts from both Ukraine and Poland, including representatives from the Institute of National Remembrance, are expected to participate in the work.

The matter has a political dimension. The institute’s president, Karol Nawrocki, is a presidential candidate supported by Law and Justice (PiS) party. The mentioned foundation also has ties to opposition politicians. These facts, the ongoing election campaign, and the expectations of Polish society make historical issues a particularly delicate matter. If they are not resolved, another crisis between the countries may arise. Should the Ukrainian side back out of the existing arrangements, Warsaw might halt negotiation talks within

During Wednesday’s meetings between Zelensky, Duda, and Tusk, many remarks were made regarding Polish-Ukrainian relations. Since 2022, Poland has consistently supported Ukraine. Despite emerging crises, this support transcends Poland’s internal political disputes, as was evident during the Ukrainian president’s visit to Warsaw. The visit can be perceived as constructive and positive.

This is also reflected in its other elements – Zelensky visited Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), where he received an honorary doctorate, and met with Rafał Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw and the presidential candidate from the ruling Civic Coalition. Zelensky awarded him the “Rescuer City” medal in recognition of the assistance Warsaw and its residents have provided to Ukraine.

Polish-Ukrainian relations should be viewed as good, though their political atmosphere is variable. Their current status appears highly cooperative; though the coming months will reveal whether both capitals are prepared to maintain this dynamic. Currently, there is cautious optimism in Poland, as many voices of mistrust can also be heard.