ANALYSIS: Ukraine in the EU: Could Poland’s EU Council Presidency Be Yanukovych’s Nightmare?

During Hungary’s presidency, Viktor Orbán did not hide his pro-Russian policies. The extension of sanctions against the aggressor and further assistance to Ukraine were blocked, significantly undermining the cohesion of Brussels’ policy.

Among the many well-known and often controversial moves by Orbán and his administration, one can also see the formation of a new coalition, “Patriots for Europe,” in the European Parliament, as well as an attempt to implement a European version of MAGA – Make Europe Great Again. Approximately 12 years after Viktor Yanukovych reneged on Ukraine’s Association Agreement with the EU, which was to be signed in Vilnius, Poland began its presidency.

On Jan. 1, 2025, the media reported on Poland assuming the presidency of the European Union. What does this role entail, and what competencies does the presiding country take on? The presidency of the European Union is rotational and is held by each member state once every 13.5 years. During this time, the presiding country leads the work of the EU Council, coordinates legislative processes, ensures the continuity of the Union’s activities, and facilitates the smooth functioning of procedures and cooperation between member states. A key duty of the presidency is to act as an honest and impartial mediator. Its main responsibilities include organizing and chairing meetings of the EU Council and representing the Council in relations with other EU institutions.

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The agenda and political goals of Poland’s presidency

Among the goals presented by Warsaw are defense and security, the protection of people and borders, resilience in the face of foreign interference and disinformation, energy transition, ensuring safety and freedom of economic activity, and more. However, these are not all the objectives set by the highly experienced Polish Prime Minister in European politics. Donald Tusk aims to leverage the period of political crisis in France, the vote of no confidence in Scholz, and early elections in Germany to strengthen his position within the EU.

Ukraine also has expectations for the upcoming presidency. “Poland’s presidency in the first half of the year and in the latter half Denmark’s EU presidency should be historic for Ukraine,” said President Volodymyr Zelensky in mid-December. Ukraine expects that Poland will accelerate its path to accession to the Western community.

This is not an unreciprocated expectation. Polish authorities, with the prime minister at the helm, echo similar sentiments. On Dec. 17, 2024, in Lviv, Donald Tusk said during a press conference that Ukraine can count on Polish support in its pursuit of NATO membership and EU accession talks. He also added that negotiations will be accelerated during Poland’s presidency, even if they are difficult and lengthy. Experts are hoping for the opening of 2-3 of Ukraine’s negotiation chapters with the EU out of a total of 6. These are expected to open in the spring of 2025.

This is not due to Warsaw’s plans, but rather to Brussels’ schedule and readiness. This alignment stems from the shared geostrategic goals of Poland and Ukraine, as well as the warming of the political climate between the two countries, which we have written about here and here. Despite the new opening, there are voices questioning Poland’s intentions, especially in light of the ongoing election campaign and the presidential elections scheduled for May 18, 2025.

Regardless of which political option wins – the frontrunners being the ruling KO (Civic Coalition) candidate Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, supported by the largest opposition party, PiS (Law and Justice) – Ukraine should not be concerned. Despite the deep political divide, support for Ukraine in Poland is bipartisan. This was recently confirmed by Piotr Łukasiewicz, the Charge d’Affaires of Poland in Ukraine, in the interview with the Ukrainian Mirror of the Week (Dzerkalo Tyzhnia).

All the same, there are still statements by Polish politicians that can be considered less friendly. In the fall of 2024, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, conditioned Ukraine’s accession on resolving Polish-Ukrainian historical disputes. However, these words should not be given too much importance. This was a statement aimed at the domestic Polish audience, announcing a more assertive foreign policy. Statements by politicians addressed to internal audiences should not be taken too seriously by foreign partners. Nonetheless, the emotions of Ukrainian audiences are understandable – everyone remembers that the Euromaidan, which came to be known as the Revolution of Dignity, had the word “Europe” in its name, and Ukraine’s European aspirations were the direct cause of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the establishment of so-called separatist republics.

The realization of Yanukovych’s nightmare: Ukraine’s integration with the EU

Twelve years have passed since Yanukovych refused to sign the association agreement with the EU. Although Ukraine’s path to EU membership is still long, it is important to remember that integration is already underway and is progressing independently of political rhetoric (although, at the end of the day, it is politicians who will cast their votes).

In 2024, the European program Ukraine Facility was launched, which will run until 2027, providing support amounting to €50 billion for the modernization and development of Ukraine. At the same time, numerous legislative changes, law enforcement actions, and other measures are being implemented to bring Ukraine in line with Western standards.

It is also worth noting that on Jan. 1, 2025, several changes took effect in Ukraine. These reforms are intended to both support the uninterrupted functioning of the state in wartime conditions and bring the country closer to the European community standards. The Ukrainian government plans to spend Hr.4 trillion (€92 billion) in 2025, with expected revenues of Hr.2.3 trillion (€53 billion). Over half of this will be allocated to defense and the military. Additionally, in December 2025, taxes were increased: the corporate income tax for businesses and banks was raised from 25% to 50%, and the personal income tax for individuals, excluding military personnel, was increased from 1.5% to 5%. These revenues will be directed towards the military.

With the beginning of the year, several measures were introduced, including the standardization of car insurance with EU law, changes to the retirement age, pension indexation, an increase in excise taxes on fuel and tobacco products, adjustments to benefits for internally displaced persons, and even minor adjustments to traffic light signals. All of these steps aim to align Ukraine’s legal and systemic conditions with EU standards.

Ukraine must consistently follow a pro-European path to fulfill its aspirations, cut ties with Russian influence once and for all, and build resilient and strong state institutions. Deviating from this path could lead to societal frustration and a sense of betrayal. Ukrainians are shedding blood and defending their country to fulfill the aspiration of the Euromaidan protesters. This requires great determination and consistency from Ukraine’s political class, both in implementing reforms and in conducting skilled foreign policy that helps build and strengthen alliances – as we see currently during Poland’s presidency of the EU Council.