ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2025

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Ukrainian forces reportedly captured the first North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast.
  • North Korean forces are reportedly deploying large assault groups to combat operations despite frequent Ukrainian drone strikes, which is likely contributing to North Korea’s high casualty rates and will likely affect the lessons that the North Korean military command will learn from fighting in the war.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his maximalist pre-war demands to isolate Ukraine and weaken NATO and reportedly aims to enforce these demands in any possible talks with Western leaders about ending the war in Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian forces may have conducted a drone strike against an oil refinery in the Republic of Tatarstan on January 11, but details of the possible strike remain unclear at this time.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast.

Authors: Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan.

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