ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November, 12, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • Russian forces recently advanced during two company-sized mechanized assaults within and south of Kurakhove in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Geolocated footage confirms reports that an explosion damaged the Ternivska Dam at the Kurakhivske Reservoir on November 11.
  • Recent Western and Ukrainian estimates about the size of the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast do not represent a significant inflection, as Russian forces have spent several months gathering forces for a future counteroffensive effort to expel Ukrainian forces from Russian territory.
  • Ukrainian military officials warned that Russian forces may intensify assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast in the near future.
  • Select Russian defense officials appear to be contradicting Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent assertion that Russia is not interested in forming a unified security bloc against the West.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Kurakhove and in Kursk Oblast.
  • The Russian military reportedly continues to coerce conscripts into signing Russian military service contracts, likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.

Authors: Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, Christopher Paludi, and Frederick W. Kagan.

See the original here.