Big US Arms Transfer to Ukraine Is Substantial, but It Also Has Some Big Gaps

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday confirmed a major US arms and assistance transfer to Ukraine, saying on his personal Telegram channel Kyiv would receive $7.9 billion in military support. He did not specify timelines.

“I am grateful to US President Joseph Biden, the US Congress and both parties, Republican and Democrat, and the entire American people for today’s announcement of significant defense aid to Ukraine totaling $7.9 billion and the imposition of sanctions against Russia, Zelensky said.

“We will use this assistance in the most effective and transparent way to achieve our main common goal: the victory of Ukraine, a just and lasting peace and transatlantic security,” he said.

A statement published by US President Joe Biden’s office on Thursday, likewise, said the package will contain long-range weapons, training and defensive weapons that will give Ukraine “the support it needs to prevail.”

According to Zelensky’s comments and Biden’s announcement, Ukraine will receive a new Patriot air defense system, expansion of training programs for Ukrainian F-16 pilots and, per the Ukrainian leader, “a new category of weapons that had not been transferred to the Armed Forces before, and here we are talking about long-range missiles.”

Biden’s announcement specified that a long-range weapon to be provided Ukraine will be AGM-154 JSOW glide bomb.

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The maximum open source-reported range of the AGM-154 bomb, which, except for the very latest variants, has no means of propulsion, and flies to its target on glider wings, is 130 kilometers (81 miles).

Ukraine already has drones of its own manufacture, and missiles donated by France and Britain, that fly hundreds of kilometers farther.

To employ glide bombs at maximum range, the plane dropping the bomb must fly at a high altitude. This is difficult for Ukrainian pilots, who are heavily outnumbered by the Russian Air Force and who must attack into the teeth of the Russian military’s dense air defense network to carry out most strike missions.

Glide bombs already in use by the Ukrainian Air Force are almost always launched at low levels to keep the Ukrainian aircraft off Russian radars but at the expense of reduced range.

Zelensky likewise confirmed that 18 Ukrainian pilots would enter F-16 training managed by the US.

Neither he nor Biden made clear whether those pilots would begin training together, or in staggered classes.

The first cohort of Ukrainian F-16 pilots, reportedly six aviators, transitioned from untrained on the F-16 to combat status in July, after fourteen months of training.

Shortages of class slots in existing NATO and NATO ally pilot training programs has been the main bottleneck of Ukraine’s F-16 program.

One Ukrainian F-16 pilot died in combat in August. Although Washington retained veto power over allowing the Ukrainian Air Force to fly the F-16, Netherlands, Denmark and Norway have committed to donate slightly more than 60 of the fourth-generation aircraft, most produced in the 1990s or 2000s.

At present training rates, and assuming no more casualties, now that pilot training has been increased from six over fourteen months, to eighteen over a period at least that long, Ukraine might have enough trained pilots to fly all the F-16s it’s been promised, in another two or three years – almost exactly as long as Russian bombers have been launching missiles at Ukrainian homes and businesses.

Patriot is widely accounted the most effective air defense system fielded by either side in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Actual numbers of systems currently in use with the Ukrainian army are a military secret, however, analysts estimate the figure is probably five or six systems. To close Ukraine’s air space to Russian attacks, Ukraine would need 25 Patriot systems, Zelensky said in July comments. The single system made public on Thursday would, based on past Russian missile raids, be able to defend most air space about a single Ukrainian city, but not more.

The overall value of the package as announced will be $7.9 billion, the greater part of which would be worth $5.5 billion, and directly removed from existing US equipment and weapons stockpiles.

The other $2.4 billion would be provided from orders to US industry for weapons and equipment either in stock with manufacturers or yet to be produced. The assistance program funding the support, called the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, is designed to give Ukraine help with air defenses, drones and other weapons over the long term.

The US on Wednesday announced a separate, $375 million military support package to Ukraine dominated by ammunition refills and rear area services equipment. Key items aside from “air-to-ground munitions” – almost certainly a reference to AGM-154 JSOW – reportedly include ammunition for HIMARS systems, 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition, TOW missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, M1117 Armored Security Vehicles, MRAP Vehicles, Light tactical vehicles, Patrol Boats and spare parts.

Thus far this week, no official mention has been made, in Washington, Kyiv or anywhere else, of new deliveries of major American ground weapons systems like the M1A1 tank (considered useful but heavy by the Ukrainian military) and the highly regarded M2 Bradley Infantry fighting vehicle, a transporter praised by Ukrainian infantry for its ability to take devastating hits and still keep crew and passengers alive.

Even more conspicuously absent from the Zelensky and Biden announcements is the US-made ATACMS missiles, a surface-to-surface ballistic weapon with a range at least double and by some estimations five times greater than the AGS-148 glide bombs Ukraine is now on track to receive.

Another high-tech, long-range weapon the Americans have that the Ukrainians have said they badly need to strike targets hundreds of kilometers behind the battle line, the AGM-158 JASSM cruise missile, like the ATACMS ballistic missile, by Thursday, seemed not to be on the table for transfer.

Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have implored Washington for long-range, precision-guided weapons like ATACMS and JASSMS for strikes against targets deep in Russia, particularly headquarters, ammunition depots and military airfields, particularly air bases used by heavy bombers pounding Ukraine’s power grid and civilian infrastructure.

Washington handed over a small number of ATACMS to Kyiv in 2023, according to official counts, less than 50, but demurred on beefy further deliveries because of fears of reducing US stocks to dangerously low levels, and concerns that American placement of a medium-range ballistic into Ukrainian hands might anger the Kremlin.