Ukraine’s population decline is “very alarming” Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Oksana Zholnovych told a public forum in Kyiv where the Social Policy Ministry delivered a report with strategies for overcoming the problem.
Over the past few years, Ukraine’s population has dropped by millions, Zholnovych said, speaking at the Demographic Future of Ukraine forum on Monday, April 22 where she was among those that delivered the report to an audience including Ukrainian politicians and scientists.
According to the United Nations Population Fund, Ukraine’s current population is estimated at 37.9 million.
In December 2001, according to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s population was 48.5 million. Two years ago, at the beginning of 2022, the National Academy of Sciences estimated Ukraine’s population was at 42 million.
By 2050, Ukraine’s population could drop by approximately another 10 million – down to 25.2 million, Zholnovych warned.
Ukraine, which already had a high emigration rate and a low birth rate, now also has a war, which worsens the situation.
Estimates vary widely, but perhaps half a million Ukrainians have been killed since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.
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Also, according to the UN Refugee Agency in Ukraine, about 6.3 million people left the country in 2022-2023 due to fighting and Russian occupation.
Since 2014 – when Russia’s war on Ukraine first began with the occupation of Crimea and its backing of separatists in the Donbas region – there’ve been some 4.9 million “internally displaced” people, forced to leave their homes and relocate to other parts of Ukraine. Most of these – 3.6 million – were displaced after the full-scale invasion.
And while internal displacement doesn’t directly decrease your population, if you have to start over by living in a new place, you’re more likely to spend your time and resources integrating into a new community rather than having children.
Last year, with only 187,000 babies born, Ukraine had the lowest birth rate recorded in its modern history, Zholnovych said.
“In 2020, there were 210 deaths per 100 births. In 2021, there were 263 deaths per 100 births,” Oleksandr Gladun, the Deputy Director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences, told Kyiv Post.
Meanwhile, the population is aging.
“It is expected that by 2035 every fifth Ukrainian will be over 65 years old,” the Ministry of Social Policy reported.
Even if Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine ends tomorrow, the birth rate will likely remain low, Zholnovych said.
But the Ministry of Social Policy reported that there are things Ukraine can do.
“We don't have to wait for a victory to realize that we need to improve services, that we need to develop medicine very quickly, that we need innovations in prosthetic technologies and barrier-free access,” Zholnovych said.
The Ministry of Social Policy recommended strategies for overcoming Ukraine’s demographic problems, including:
- Encouraging growth in the birth rate by offering more support for families
- Reducing the number of people dying early by improving health care and educating people about health
- Getting more people to come to Ukraine – particularly by encouraging the Ukrainian diaspora to return to their homeland and by attracting foreigners to join Ukraine’s workforce
- Helping internally displaced Ukrainians integrate
- Developing mechanisms to improve the health/well-being of the elderly and encouraging them to stay active and involved in the workforce – particularly by creating flexible working conditions
- Improving the general quality of life – by bringing the war to an end, finding affordable housing for people, increasing people’s economic independence, improving infrastructure, and creating a socially cohesive environment
“These are the things we need to do now, and these things will make our Ukraine more competitive, more successful and attractive to return to tomorrow,” Zholnovych said.
Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, said that in modern society, where women are often entering careers, there has to be flexibility for them to also have children. And elderly people have to be integrated into the workforce.
“We have to create specific jobs for people. We are talking about the need to create flexible working hours for women, for the elderly as well. We have to explain to society that older people are not ballast,” Libanova said.
Simply to avoid population decline, 100 Ukrainian women need to give birth to about 210-220 children, Gladun said.
“Before the war, 100 women gave birth to 120-130 children. That is half as many as needed.”
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Comments (2)
Asking people to have children and families in the middle of an existential war is asking a bit much.
Painful it will be to rise above this issue, with an end to this war, Ukraine can pull together a good plan to address many issues. A position note is that they could be many citizens return from foreign lands once the war is ended. also there will likely be a birth increase at the end of war, soldiers returning home. Another positive is Ukriane will need millions of workers and they could have a large influx of workers from foreign lands. Rebuilding Ukraine will take years if not decades, so foreign workers will be a good asset and many will stay for life as they become part of the growing nation.
Russia faces the same problem without the positive attributes noted above. In fact Russia will continue its birth decline and very likely the Federation will break up. Leaving Russia itself alone with little incentives for people to move there.
@GregC, Thoughtfully stated. There is now huge disparity in how the world views Ukraine (very positively) vs russia (very negatively). Ukrainians have a lot to be proud of, and in their courageous struggle and resilience have truly inspired and even united what was a growingly fractured free world. It draws attention and good will well beyond what I have ever seen in any other nation in my many decades.
There are various 'golden visa' schemes amongst EU nations that can draw qualified foreigners with skills and money. Perhaps with its EU membership this becomes a possibility. Currently these go for $250k (Portugal) to $1 million (Malta) in the way of business or real-estate investment. Also with cheap / reliable connectivity, switching to EU transportation grid standards (rail) and discount airlines could make Ukraine an interesting work location for expat remote workers.
Many skilled folks nearing retirement would also enjoy a chance to contribute their career / hobby talents towards worthy rebuild and rehabilitation projects if they could be donated on flexible terms and coordinated somewhat by fluent locals. I've contacted United24 and suggest they take a lead post war in coordinating such international volunteer 'time donations' on worthy campaigns. I'd rather enjoy volunteering for solely having some useful purpose during the day and some shared community food / home brew / strumming / singing in the evening.
Ukraine will be okay.