WORLD BRIEFING: April 18, 2024

Climate inaction will depress the world’s economy more than previously estimated, according to a new study that takes into account the impacts of weather extremes and variability such as temperature spikes and intense rainfall. A scenario in which global temperatures rise 3C on average will reduce the world’s gross domestic product by about 10 percent, doctoral researcher Paul Waidelich of ETH Zurich and colleagues write, with less developed countries paying the worst toll. By comparison, limiting global warming by 2050 to 1.5C – as sought by the Paris Agreement – will reduce that impact by about two-thirds – Bloomberg

House Speaker Mike Johnson is moving forward with a plan to vote on separate bills to provide assistance to Ukraine, Israel and US allies in the Indo-Pacific, despite growing criticism from within his conference and the looming threat of being ousted from his post. The plan is to introduce the three individual foreign aid bills; a fourth bill placing sanctions on Russia, China and Iran; and a fifth bill including border security measures, Johnson said in a message to House Republicans Wednesday, April 17. Bill text for the foreign aid bills was posted Wednesday afternoon. The addition of a border security bill comes after a number of House Republicans criticized Johnson for abandoning prior demands to tie Ukraine funding to border provisions. A Senate-passed package that included foreign aid with no border provisions has been languishing in the House. But the change may not be enough to assuage hardline conservatives, who swiftly came out in opposition of the plan – NPR

Russia's military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm. In the second 12 months on the front line – as Moscow pushed its so-called “meat grinder” strategy – we found the body count was nearly 25 percent higher than in the first year. BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022. New graves in cemeteries helped provide the names of many soldiers. Our teams also combed through open-source information from official reports, newspapers and social media. More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat – according to our findings – a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost – BBC

Russia has lost about 10 percent of its aircraft in more than two years of war in Ukraine, the head of the United States’ European forces has said, weeks ahead of a potential new Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Moscow's military has lost "no capacity at all" in some areas –including its strategic forces, space capabilities and long-range aviation—despite waging war in Ukraine for more than 25 months, General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of the US European Command and NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, told the House Armed Services Committee on April 10. “The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10 percent of their fleet,” Cavoli said. According to figures published by the Ukrainian military, Russia has lost 347 aircraft and another 325 helicopters since February 2022. Kyiv's tallies have not been independently verified. Earlier this year, Ukraine reported a spike in Russian aircraft losses, saying Kyiv's forces had downed a total of 13 aircraft, including an advanced A-50 spy plane, in as many days. Shortly after Ukraine's statements, the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, evaluated that the spate of aviation losses had nudged Russia into rolling back its aircraft activity in eastern Ukraine – Newsweek

Russian dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza faces a long and arduous transfer from a Siberian penal colony to a Moscow court to appeal against his 25-year sentence on treason and other charges, his lawyer said on April 17. Maria Eismont told reporters that the conditions of the transfer would amount to torture for Kara-Murza, 42, who suffers from a serious nerve condition. Eismont said transferring Kara-Murza from Omsk to Moscow was likely to take at least three weeks, during which time he would have no contact with his family or lawyers – RFE/RL