Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s Open Ukraine Foundation organized the 16th annual Kyiv Security Forum (KSF2024)entitled “Ukraine’s Call to the World: Together, We Prevail.” It was held on March 21-22 in the Fairmont Grand Hotel in the historical Podilsky area of Kyiv.
Russia’s attack, launching cruise missiles at Kyiv from Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS strategic bombers, brought the war home to many of the event’s foreign guests, who were making their first visit to Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion. Emerging from the hotel’s bomb shelter after spending several hours there helped focused their minds on the realities Ukrainians regularly faced.
Admiral Rob Bauer Chair of NATO’s Military Committee said that leading the first NATO military delegation to Ukraine since February 2022 gave testament to the relationship between the Alliance and Ukraine was closer than ever.
His comment that “The Swedish flag won't be the sole representation of blue and yellow within NATO,” was met with applause all around the hall. “Every day, we are getting closer, more compatible. Together, we are doing everything to ensure that Ukraine becomes a member of our Alliance,” he said.
In his address he underlined the need to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs as quickly as possible to counter Russian advances particularly in the area of artillery ammunition for which private enterprise could help.
TALKING SUBSTANCE: Crossfire: Russia and the Shadow of World War
“We all witnessed today’s shelling of Kyiv and Odesa. At such times, I am always very emotional. We pay much too high a price. It is very difficult to explain to the whole world that we are being shelled and bombed solely because we are not a full-fledged NATO member,” Olena Kondratiuk, Deputy Chairwoman of Ukraine’s parliament told the discussion panel: “Historic choice: Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO”.
She said that Ukraine must show the same level of determination that Poland did to become an EU member.
Sławomir Sierakowski, editor-in-chief of the Polish Krytyka Polityczna magazine said the Polish-Ukrainian border crisis will be resolved immediately after the local elections. “Two elections wait for us ahead, and the option is either lose elections or keep having problems at the border. I am certain that as soon as domestic issues in Poland are resolved, the next thing the government does will be to open borders and make its utmost to assist Ukraine, both politically and militarily.”
Volodymyr Groysman, a former Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament, said that Putin must be defeated in Ukraine, and that he can only be stopped by force. He said that Moscow’s “ultimatum” prior to a full-scale invasion that NATO must withdraw to the 1997 borders should be seen as a direct threat against Poland, Czechia, the Slovak Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and all the Baltic countries. “It would be simply idealistic” to think “such a mad dictator” would stop with Ukraine alone, Groysman said.
In response to a controversial Financial Times claim that the US had asked Ukraine to stop targeting Moscow’s oil refineries, General Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe said such action had a major impact on Russia’s ability to wage war. “Undoubtedly, striking oil refineries has an impressive effect. Russia’s possibility to fund this war diminishes, moreover, it has much less of the needed fuel needed to continue combat operations. I’d recommend ignoring such calls to stop such strikes,” Hodges said.
Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine, Olha Stevanishyna, said that Russia’s refineries are legitimate military objectives and Kyiv will keep targeting them.
On another issue she said “We are waiting for weapons. There is no positive decision by the US Congress yet. For the fourth month we wait for the readily available packages of assistance.”
General David Howell Petraeus, a former CIA director said he was optimistic that the US aid situation would be resolved. “We hear certain positive comments from the House of Representatives Speaker. I am unaware of when the decision will ensue. Nevertheless, I hope that the correct decision is taken within a matter of a few weeks,” Petraeus said as he believed there was strong bi-partisan support for Ukraine in both the Senate and in Congress.
Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) shared Petraeus’ view and said that Moscow had been rewriting history for centuries and the evidence could be found in the libraries of Stanford and Oxford, and the West should no longer accept narratives that are based on such false research.
“Speaking about the future one should definitely remember the past. This is terribly important. Still, no one wants to re-visit the past. Indeed, some have thought that we as a nation did not exist. Russia was not alone in hatching such ideas,” Danilov said. “The US will make another mistake if they fail to understand that decolonization of Russia is to be carried out in the nearest future.”
On the economic front
Andrius Kubilius, a Lithuanian MEP and former Prime Minister said Ukraine needed €100 billion a year which should not be an issue for the US and the EU economies which are 25 times stronger than that of Russia, but one cannot feel this difference at the frontline.
“My question is: is there any proof of this advantage? What does this advantage mean at the frontline? Russia invested over €100 billion into its aggression against Ukraine. Ukraine has received only €80 billion, from combined Europe and US contributions. This amount may prevent [Ukraine’s] defeat, but is insufficient to win,” he said.
He said the free world must be prepared for the confrontation with Putin’s Russia to be long term. “We cannot go back to the notion of ‘business as usual’ with Russia. We have tried, and we have failed, and now we are dealing with the consequences of an aggressive, dangerous Russia, and we need to mean it,” Ambassador Daniel Fried, Honorary Atlantic Council member and former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs said.
He also said that sanctions against Moscow work, but they’re currently not working fast enough or decisively enough to save Ukraine. They have to be applied simultaneously with the military assistance which is a priority for now.
“Look at the sanctions against the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, it continued to produce military materiel. Their military industry was effective, it was doing ok, but their civilian economy was rotting. Back in the 1980s it looked like sanctions policy had completely failed. In retrospect, it looks like a success. That’s not going to be able to help Ukraine right now,” he said.
Another top US official, Philip Zelikow, a Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, and former Counselor in the US Department of State said the outcome of the war in Ukraine will have a decisive knock-on effect on the course of world history.
“The US is currently preparing for a world-wide war in three different theaters: in East Asia either with China or North Korea, or both, at any time. And we have prepared right now for a possibility of a major war with Russia. We must prepare for all these wars simultaneously,” Zelikow said, adding that the war in Ukraine must be the top priority of the US foreign policy.
Today Ukraine has become the center of the world struggle which is a serious challenge and great opportunity for this generation of Ukrainians to be at the center of crucial events in world history that will be remembered for thousand years, Zelikow said, a view shared by most participants.
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Comments (5)
it is sad the USA has abandoned Ukriane, clearly the world can see the Americans will not stand by their commitments. Ukriane has been betrayed by the USA before... they were forced to give up their nuclear weapons along with 10's of thousands non-nuclear all given to Russia - who uses these weapons today against Ukriane. the Budapest Memorandum was a useless piece of paper. then again in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea, the USA President told Ukraine to not fight!
then when Russia invaded the Donbas area, Ukraine woke up realizing the USA was not going to support them. Ukrainians volunteer to fight and stopped the Russians...
today the Americans clearly show the world how weak they have become. WIlling to side back with a beer some popcorn and watch on 6 o'clock news how Ukrainian citizens are dying in their beds, how cities are being eliminated from this earth. it is just a TV program for the Americans, no AMerican dying, no American cities being destroyed... nothing to see here...
the USA has proven how undependable they are...
Ukriane must not expect anymore support from these weak AMericans. A nation where one of its major political party has become the PUtin Party. A nation where millions believe and accept lies, deceit just as the Russian citizen does.
No Ukraine must find partners that are dependable... not the USA --- Putin is very happy to see his investments in the USA paying large dividends today.
Ukrainians react to being bombed the same way Britons reacted to being bombed during the blitz of WW2.
Did it weaken our resolve or make us give up the fight? No.
In London people gathered in the underground tunnels and sang songs together. People helped each other and shared what they had, nobody panicked when the power went out.
Putin thinks he can bomb Ukraine into submission. It hasn't worked. It will never work. He does not understand these people.
The cost of war. Great Britain just finished paying USA back for WWII war debt. 40 years! Then there is WWI. Just why did this war have to be? The Kaiser, Czar Romanov and King George were all cousins! It seems that WWI and WWII are the same war. Yes I support Europes cause against Russia. Anyone watches “ATPGEOPOLITICS?"
John, Your looking only at Ukraine. The Golf War and Afghanistan War were paid for out of Social Security cash and Gov’t IOU’s were printed worth nothing. Congress considers the Social Security fund as a general fund for them to spend however they want. Social Security will run out in ten years.
@will, The IRAQ war under Bush's false WMD pretences costs $1.1 trillion . Afghanistan war $2.313 trillion. I think a significant amount was recouped by some allies in IRAQ oil though. NATO members participated in these extremely costly wars given their Article 5 obligation being called in by the USA.
Certainly aiding Ukraine's defence is a much more worthy cause, yet allied contribution presently pales by comparison to what those poorly thought out past US wars cost (where's the WMD again?).
Nothing gets better if allies give into a psychotic criminal like Putin who actively states his intent to expand further into the EU and attack NATO members. Ukraine is asking our help to defend their people and their sovereignty. The is a pivital battle for the future of the EU. Ukraine is not asking us to even risk our lives, but assuredly if Ukraine fails for lack of our support, that will be the case.
The de-risking ROI of supporting Ukraine against our mutual enemy russia has been amazing. They are brave and efficient warriors.
Every war the USA has been in since WWII, the folks pointing weapons at them were russian supported. Even in collaborative UN Security force peacekeeping mission in Syria, Russia plotting to kill the collaborative USA peacekeepers. Its hybrid wars against the USA (and all democratic allies) continue to this day. Don't miss this bargain priced opportunity to finally thwart a persistent thug led enemy.
Support Ukraine!
This needs to be said. America is facing war with China, Korea, and Russia. America’s industrial base is not what is was in the first half of the 20th Century. Ukraine is the beginning of WWIII. It is one theater of this existential war. America has been attacked continually by thousand of drones beginning last December. Langley and Newport news, where half of our carriers and subs dock and where America builds it subs. swarms of drones around each vessel and know drone defense capability. This is not common knowledge. Where they come from we don’t know. The fact is that America is at war. What military stock piles we have, we need. President Trump did Europe a favor. This is the first time in seventy years that Europe has to stand on it s own two feet without America. Finally, my senior pension along with 60 million other Americans is depleted to pay for all these wars, from Korea to Ukraine and beyond. 60 Billion aid package buys Ukraine another six months of supplies. It will cost me and the 60 million Social Security dependents personally for decades to come.
@Will, You've got some numbers hugely wrong. The cost of of one year of Social Security is currently $680 Billion in the USA and growing. Just a bit less than their own defence budget of $857.9 billion.
So the total $67.7 Billion the USA has provided to Ukraine OVER THE LAST 2 YEARS is consumed in SS in just a bit over 1 month in the USA.
Of the funding sent only $40 million was in the form of weapons and many of these were old stock scheduled for disposal. The remainder of their contribution was also not all 'gift'. It included loans guarantees and Ukraine war bond backing. Russian assets frozen in the USA cover this and the next Biden requested instalment.
That 2 year total contribution ranks the USA at 32nd place on a GDP% basis compared to other allied support. Ironically it also represents 0.32% of its single year GDP.
Meanwhile most allies buy their weapons from the USA. It manufactured and sold 6 times more in new weapons last year than it donated to in its old stock to Ukraine. US Weapon sales were up 56% to $238 billion in 2023!!! Much higher over 3 years. The trickle down impact of this increased manufacturing to the USA economy is mammoth. It's employing the people that support SS checks. It also shares cost of US innovation over a large pool of export customers.
Even if moral justification not longer flies in the USA anymore, transactionally this war is big business for the USA.
@John,