Kyiv Post: There are increasing rumors that a major attack on the Karch Bridge connecting Russia to Crimea is imminent. How high do you think the chances are that such an attack is actually imminent and could be successful? At what point in time?
Andreas Umland: This now seems possible insofar as the Ukrainian army can reach the Kerch Bridge with the ATACMS missiles. However, the question arises as to whether the power of the warheads of the American missiles already makes such an attack worthwhile. As I understand it, Ukraine requested the Taurus cruise missiles from Germany to destroy the Kerch Bridge. In this respect, this may be a technical rather than tactical or strategic decision for Kyiv, depending on the assessment of the chances of success of bombing the bridge with the ATACMS.
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Kyiv Post: How well prepared is Russia for such an attack?
Andreas Umland: The Kremlin wants to avoid destroying the bridge for a number of reasons, and there is a considerable military infrastructure to protect the Kerch Bridge. While the importance of the bridge as a supply route for the Russian army has recently declined, the symbolic significance of the structure for Putin and his regime remains high. In addition to the great importance of the bridge as a supply route for the Russian army, the symbolic significance of the structure for Putin and his regime is high. It would be an enormous embarrassment for the Kremlin if Ukraine were to succeed in rendering the bridge unusable or even causing it to collapse. Moscow will therefore do everything it can to avoid or fend off such an attack. There are now even suggestions that Russia is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons in response to the attack on the bridge.
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Kyiv Post: Do you see the delivery of ATACMS as a game changer for Ukraine when it comes to Crimea and the Kerch Bridge?
Andreas Umland: This is also a question for missile technicians and warhead experts rather than political scientists. Until now, only the Taurus cruise missiles were considered suitable for destroying the bridge. This may also be the reason for the German government's decision to withhold the delivery of these German weapons to Ukraine. I could imagine that Moscow has threatened Berlin with some kind of "retaliation" in this case.
Kyiv Post: What consequences would a successful large-scale attack on the Crimean bridge have for Putin?
Andreas Umland: There have already been several Ukrainian attacks on the bridge. The question is more about the consequences of a possible destruction of the structure. This would be problematic for Russian troops in Crimea and southern mainland Ukraine as well as for Putin's image within Russia. It is also possible that the high domestic political salience of the Crimea issue is the reason for Moscow's recently renewed threat to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
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Comments (10)
Do it. DO IT !!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-fJd2ALiPM
Start at 00:44
If only, it's a clandestine construction made without a proper Licence in stolen land and that is more than enough for it to be taken down, like any illegal slum... out with that crap.
If interrupted, i.e. having a few spans knocked down, the bridge will be exceedingly difficult to repair and will presumably be bombed again when that process is almost finished. And once again. Of course it is worth attacking it. A railway can be repaired in a few hours except in a Viaduct, but Viaducts are hard to hit. Blow the bridge, then concentrate in the railway.
And always shrug the ruzzian threats, otherwise there would be a ruzzian flag in Kiyv right now! The ruzzians like to growl and bark a lot, but then they're hit, like everyone else...
destroy the bridge as soon as possibly. shock Putin and let all Russian know they cannot defend Crimea!
Crimea is the key to victory in Ukraine, and the destruction of the Kerch Bridge is first step in achieving that. It will be a political coup for Zelinsky and a political end to Putler and military defeat for russia.
"Crimea must be made untenable" to quote Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, regardless of any Kremlin "red lines".
While Luhansk and Donesk may have significance for the mineral resouces, noone under 25 y.o. even remember Ukraining rule. Anyone between 18 and 65 are either dying at the front or rusified, or both, and should not be the miltary priority.
Once Ukraine has F16, drone superiority, artillary, and a replenished army (in 2025), the Kerch Bridge will fall, and Crimea will be liberated.
Fop targets so deep inside Ukraine's borders fighter aircraft might be able to intercept and shoot down cruise missiles approaching high value energy infrastructure targets
Alternatively their radars (especially F16 radars) might better discriminate against ground clutter and allow a kind of AWACS capability that can be shared with other anti missile defense assets.
That is a very bad idea. Damages would be minimal. Retaliation against Kyiv would be massive.
And the Russian started the Railway line Taganrog - Mariupol which is close before completion.
The Railway is quicker and in mid-term 3-5 years the backbone in Donetzk and Crimea.
It is a very good idea.
Damage, even less than completely dropping any spans, would render the bridge unusable for weeks or more for the resupply of Russian forces in Crimea and also supplies and ordnance would be cut off from Russian forces up on the front lines. The Taganrog - Mariupol rail line should also be cut. Repeatedly. Combined with striking storage depots and distribution centers it would be huge to shut down critical supply to the Russian war effort.
Retaliations against Kyiv are already as massive as Russia can arrange. They are not holding back. The accomplishment of a tactically and strategically sound move by the Ukrainians is exactly what is called for without delay.
@Doug, Well Stated!
@peter, Your remarks clearly indicate membership of the Russian information warfare team. Your predictable standard core message is "resistance is useless".
Pathetically obvious strategy.
Do better or don't bother wasting space in your Moscow office
Although the efficiency of the bridge may have been reduced, it remains a military target and therefore worth the effort to be destroyed.
BOTH SIDES DO A DEAL... SAVE THE CIVILIANS!
@BASIL WILLIAMS,
Putin doesn't spare his own citizens in Russia, and he hasn't kept previous deals either. What makes you think that to do a deal with him now will mean it will save the civilians?
@TheOtherSide, <<<--- Someone GETS it!!!
Better to target military equipment like air defense systems, radars and warehouse ammunition first to weaken defense of the opponents ...
May peace come after victory with God help ...