Experts of leading international investment banks have assessed Ukraine's need in the additional external financing at over $5 billion, according to analytical surveys.
The conservative assessment of an analyst from Morgan Stanley investment bank Alina Sliusarchuk foresees that the shortage of external financing amounts to the sum starting from $5 billion.
“The main challenge for Ukraine in the near term is the financing of the budget and external liabilities. If the situation with the replenishment of the budget looks less critical, the repayment of foreign liabilities in the conditions of narrowing reserves is under question. By the end of this year the main burden on Ukraine’s forex reserves will be the following: the debt of $3 billion to Russia’s Gazprom, Russia’s demand to buy gas using advance payments and the traditional increase in population’s demand on foreign currency before the elections. In 2015, the situation will remain still complicated: Ukraine will have to pay at least $9.2 billion under external liabilities, including $3 billion on bonds to Russia,” the expert said.
An analyst from Goldman Sachs investment bank Andrew Matheny said that the required volume of financing depends on the pace of the Ukrainian economy next year, which will be determined by the development of events in the eastern part of Ukraine. In this case, under the pessimistic scenario, the shortage of financing could total around $13 billion, the expert said.
The analyst from Barclays investment bank Eldar Vakhitov pointed at the negative consequences of the further escalation of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine.
“Despite the fact that the stress tests of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) foresee stability of Ukrainian liabilities and we agree with the IMF in our assessments, the escalation of the situation in the eastern part of the country could change the conclusion,” the expert said.
Among potential sources of financing for Ukraine is the IMF, donor and international financial organizations and private investors.
