Russia’s Kremlin-controlled news organizations have not specified whether the build-up at the Gyumri army base involves additional troops or equipment.
In the past, news reports in Armenia put the Russian troop count at 3,000.Meanwhile, Russian and Armenian news organizations have reported that Moscow is reinforcing its air force base at Erebuni with better fighters, attack helicopters, drones and other equipment.
The head count at Erebuni is believed to be at least 1,000 Russians but perhaps as many as 2,000.
In the past couple of months, every time the Kremlin has sent additional equipment to Erebuni, it has touted the moves in Russian Defense Ministry press releases.
The ministry PR team has also been crowing about developments as mundane as Russian troops getting sniper training in Armenia.The extensive publicity campaign surrounding the build-up is obviously designed to send a message to potential Armenian or Russian foes in the region.In that sense, it is different from the PR strategy the Russians used in their hybrid, stealth-war takeover of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and their support for separatists trying to create an independent country in eastern Ukraine.
That strategy was to deny that Russia was playing a military role in either enclave.
Moscow admitted months after consolidating its hold on Crimea that Russian soldiers in camouflage and without insignia had seized Crimea, not locals. Russia has never admitted sending troops and equipment to the separatists, but the evidence is overwhelming that it has, including body bags carrying dead soldiers back to the Motherland.
The Russian build-up in Armenia is occurring against a backdrop of increased tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and deteriorating relations between Russia and Turkey over Turkey downing a Russian fighter in its air space in November 2015.
The fighter was involved in the Kremlin’s air campaign against Syrian insurgent forces trying to topple the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, a Russian ally.
Thoughtful Armenians view the Russian build-up in their country as a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it indicates that Russia is determined to help its most compliant colony in the former Soviet Union in the event of regional trouble.
On the other hand, the build-up will make Russia’s stranglehold on Armenia even stronger.There is another strategic element to the Russian build-up besides Moscow watching out for Armenia, of course: It enhances Russia’s ability to project power in the region.
The key elements of the build-up in December and January, as reported by the Russian and Armenian press, include:— In early December 2015, Russia sent seven Mi-24 Hind attack helicopters and an unspecified number of Mi-8MT Hip transport helicopters to Erebuni.
Three weeks later, in late December, the Russian Defense Ministry announced it had deployed six more Mi-24s and more Mi-8MTs to the air base.
On Jan 5, the Russian news agency Sputnik reported that the Kremlin would send advanced, fourth-generation MiG 29s fighters to Erebuni in the second half of 2016. It said preparations were already being made for the arrival of the fighters, including building storage shelters for them. It did not say how many fighters would be deployed.
Older versions of the MiG 29 have been stationed at the Russian base since 1998.— Russia deployed Tachyon surveillance drones to Erebuni, the Russian news agency RIA reported on Jan 11.
It did not give a number.
The PanArmenian.net news portal signaled on Jan. 15 that some advanced MiGs were already at Erebuni when it reported that young Russian pilots at the base had begun training in them.
More than 100 Russian soldiers started a one-month sniper training program at Gyumri, PanArmenian.net reported on Jan. 19.
This flurry of Russian military activity in Armenia comes in the wake of the defense ministers of the two countries signing a joint air-defense agreement in late December 2015. That agreement commits Russia to defending Armenian air space if a third country’s warplanes penetrate it.
No one knows how the Russian build-up will play out in the region in the months to come.But one thing’s for sure: While most Armenians take comfort in Moscow’s show of strength on their country’s behalf, those who would like to see Armenia become truly independent of Russia know that the build-up reduces that possibility.
Armine Sahakyan is a human rights activist based in Armenia. Follow her on Twitter at: www.twitter.com/ArmineSahakyann
