Curiously, lots of Americans agree. Even leaving aside
conspiracy nuts and Trump supporters at the Republican National Convention in
Cleveland who believe that Obama is a secret Muslim committed to destroying the
American way of life, his approval ratings after the early days of his
presidency have been below average for U.S. presidents. Two years ago, only 38 percent of Americans approved of him, which wasn’t much above an all-time low for a
sitting president – especially keeping in mind that the economy was growing and
the country was at peace. Midterm elections are always tough on the party
occupying the White House, but in 2014 the Democrats suffered a particularly
nasty defeat, losing more seats in the House and surrendering control of the
Senate. .
Republicans often call Obama “the worst president in
history”, and Donald Trump usually refers to him as a disaster.
However – perhaps thanks to Trump as well as his rival Hillary
Clinton, whose own negative ratings are at historically unprecedented levels –
starting in March, when the current presidential campaign moved into high gear,
Americans’ view of Obama began to change. His rating now stands at 52%,
somewhat higher than the average for past presidents in the last six months in
office. .
Americans have thus joined the rest of the world, whose opinion
of Obama has been consistently favorable. A recent survey in 19 countries
showed that in 18 of them some 70% of respondents approved of him. One country
strongly disliked Obama and it was Russia, where his positive rating was only
18%.
Obama is charming, smart, highly educated, well-mannered and
articulate. His speeches are a pleasure to listen to. His blend of fairness and
calm authority exemplify what is best about American government and American
leadership in the world. He will be sorely missed in coming years.
But, of course, the main reason why Americans have suddenly
developed such a liking for Obama is the fact that he has presided over a
period of remarkable economic recovery and political stability. The economic
crisis he inherited from George W. Bush has been overcome, the headline
unemployment rate has dropped toward record lows, house prices are on the rise
again, interest rates remain historically low and even oil prices have fallen
by more than a buck since 2008.
Obama also withdrew U.S. troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, and
avoided any further military entanglements. His critics point out that there
have been three serious terrorist attacks in the United States in recent years
– in Boston, San Bernardino and Orlando – but they were the work of
individuals, not terrorist cells, and had a fairly tenuous connect to radical
Islam. In any case, in comparison with Europe America remains quite safe from
Islamic terrorism.
However, to the same extent that American voters underestimated
Obama previously, they now tend to overpraise him. Obama is not a reformer and
not a fighter. His main character traits are restraint and patience. During his
first presidential run in 2008, he was even nicknamed No Drama Obama because
nothing could get him seriously worked up. This has been his style in
governing, too – he never rises to the bait and in any situation prefers to
wait rather than act. And, when he does act and encounters resistance, his
instinct is to stand down. Unlike FDR, for instance, who relished fighting his
enemies and did so very effectively, Obama is too aware that you can’t win
every battle and is all too ready to compromise.
Waiting out has ensured economic and political stability in the
United States, but it also created smouldering conflicts and unresolved,
festering problems all over the place. Obama’s stability is very tenuous and if
any of the cauldrons inside or outside the country blow up, Obama’s successor
won’t be able to sit on the fence the way Obama has been lucky enough to do.
But that will no longer be his problem. On the contrary: his era is then all
the more likely to be remembered as a golden age.
The policy of waiting and not acting – or doing a bare minimum
while avoiding deeper involvement – has had mixed results. The Arab Spring
produced calamities in Libya and Syria, but stability was reestablished in
Egypt and the Arabian Peninsula.
In dealing with the Arab-Israeli conflict, Obama displayed his
typical modus operandi: after promising to be more proactive and trying to lean
on Israel to extract more concessions to the Palestinian side, Obama retreated
the moment he encountered staunch resistance from Israeli prime minister
Benjamin Netanyahu. In the event, he ended up doing less to promote the
two-state solution than any of his predecessors at the White House.
There is no question that the Middle East is in massive
turmoil, but it so happens that, with oil markets glutted and oil prices
falling, the region’s strategic importance has been temporarily diminished.
Yet, Obama’s successors will certainly have to deal with regional problems he
is leaving unresolved, which include – but are not limited to – the rise of
ISIS, the refugee crisis which is undermining the European Union and which the
United States refuses to address, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Israeli
opposition to the nuclear deal with Iran, etc.
Russia – and Ukraine – is another problem that has been swept
under the carpet. Obama’s cautious response to Russian aggression has also had
its critics. However, taking unrealistic options of brinksmanship and direct
conflict between the world’s two leading nuclear powers off the table, his
ability to stop Putin has always been limited. It should be admitted that Obama
skillfully engineered a coalition that imposed sanctions on Russia. The
sanctions were sufficient to discourage Putin from pushing further into
Ukraine, but didn’t sink the Russian economy, which would have left Putin with
nothing to lose. Similarly, providing modern offensive weapons to Ukraine might
have allowed Ukrainian armed forces to kick the ragtag rebel gangs from
Donbas, but would have risked triggering an all-out Russian offensive.
However, after initial successes Obama has done little to keep
pressure on Moscow. He allowed Putin to freeze the conflict, so that the threat
to Ukrainian sovereignty is always present and the war can be restarted at the
time of Putin’s choosing. Meanwhile, as it often happens, the sanctions regime
is starting to fray. Even if Trump – a declared enemy of Ukraine and a friend
of Putin’s – is not elected US president, Kyiv may find itself face to face with
an emboldened Russia, eventually forcing it
to seek accommodation.
And then the most important issue – the tearing of social
fabric within the United States, which has occurred on this President’s watch.
The Vietnam War and its aftermath have shown that Washington can have an
effective foreign policy only when there is social peace at home. Therefore,
internal contradictions in the United States which are starkly emerging during
the current presidential race are the greatest threat to the security of the
country, as well as stability of the world’s economic and political system.
True, the U.S economy has been growing for some seven years,
much of it was due to massive infusions of liquidity into the banking system by
the U.S. Federal Reserve. The financial system, which collapsed so spectacularly
in 2008, has been completely re-established, and the bubbles that burst in the
last year of George W. Bush’s presidency have been inflating once more. The
outcome is likely to be the same.
During the Obama years almost all income growth has gone to the
richest 10 or 15 percent of the population, while poverty rates have
increased and the gap between the haves and the have-nots has reached its
highest level in 100 years. The presidential election this year showed that a
large part of the great American middle class feel left out and no longer
believe in the American dream. Astonishingly, America is no longer the land of
opportunity for its own citizens.
Moreover, despite the fact that the country has been led by a black president – or perhaps because
of it – race relations not only did not improve, but deteriorated
significantly. How sad it is to recall that after Obama’s victory in 2008 there
was so much talk about post-racial society. Today, for the first time since the
1960s, U.S. cities are grappling with race riots. In response to a series of
killings of unarmed African-Americans by the police, an organization called
Black Lives Matter has emerged. It is dedicated to peaceful, legal protests,
but there have already been several cases of revenge shootings of police
officers. As a result, even peaceful protests by African-Americans now cause
fear and loathing among certain groups of whites.
It’s not Obama’s fault, but he still leaves the country more
than ever divided along racial lines. Symptomatic of this new/old conflict has
been the rise of Donald Trump, who has been stirring white resentment and
playing the race card with astonishing success. This new wave of racism, alas,
is a direct response to Obama’s presidency, as after eight years in office he
has not been able to convince many Americans that he is their president, too.
