Nerves are frayed in Ukraine following the Kremlin’s ratcheting up of tension over the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula, culminating in an unsupported accusation by Putin that Ukraine had “resorted to the practice of terror.”
There are worrisome signs that Russia might be planning a further invasion of Ukrainian territory: Fighting and casualties are on the rise in the eastern Donbas, in a war that’s already claimed 10,000 lives and displaced more than 1.5 million people.
Trainloads of military equipment were spotted moving towards Crimea from Russia’s Rostov Oblast, and more were reported in the border zone; border checkpoints on the de facto border between Ukraine and occupied Crimea were closed by both sides; and reports started circulating on the Russian-language internet of some sort of deadly incident in the area. These were quickly picked up and amplified by Russia’s FSB security service.
But no evidence for such an incident has been forthcoming, apart from the arrest by Russia of what appeared to be a hapless Ukrainian truck driver in the wrong place at the wrong time.
This flaring in tension over Crimea is of great concern, with Ukraine putting its armed forces on high alert. But invading Ukraine over the narrow Perekop Isthmus would be a risky operation, even for superior Russian forces.
More likely, this is another case of Putin playing mind games, testing reactions from Ukraine and the world. This is the perfect time for such a test, with Western leaders distracted by internal problems or elections, the Olympics and vacations.
The dismal response from the West to Putin’s flagrant violations of international law — not just in Ukraine — must come to an end.
However, judging from the West feeble responses to the war in Syria and the failed coup against Turkey — Western leaders are not prepared to do anything meaningful to contain Putin. His threat to pull out of the Normandy-format talks on Ukraine also raises the alarming possibility that Putin has given up on diplomacy or seeks an end-run around Ukraine with direct talks only with the West.
Ukraine remains on the defensive since the catastrophic battlefield losses that triggered the failed Minsk I and Minsk II peace agreements on unfavorable terms. Despite the valiant efforts of soldiers and civilians, there is no reason to believe Ukraine could fare well against a full-scale Russian assault.
Putin’s threats, his delegitimizing of Ukraine’s government by again claiming it came to power in a “coup” and his other endless threats demand a long overdue and much tougher response from the West.
Clearly the modest sanctions and frequent condemnation of Putin has not changed his behavior in the last three years. In fact, when confronted with such timidity, he becomes emboldened by the West’s weakness and threatens to intensify his drive to destroy Ukrainian statehood and Western institutions.
